good things about Aspen post Gravirax tour

 I've been getting a lot of shit from my local friends for my negative posts regarding Aspen.  To be honest many of my friends just give me shit---it seems to be a favorite pastime; that said they are right.  I do bitch about Aspen A LOT.  After a quick 3 day marketing tour for Gravirax I was able to do some compare and contrast with Vail, Steamboat, Beaver Creek and Breck and got some positive stuff to say about Aspen.

1. Crowds ---we got a lot less of em. And less is more when  you are skiing.  To be completely honest, I almost never ski with anyone (see above comment about 'friends') which means I can pretty quickly single my way through any lift line, but there is nothing better than having almost no skiers near you.  The thing that scares me the most when I am skiing is other skiers usually from Texas shouting yea haaaaaaaaaa while trying to figure out how to turn.  I would say that Aspen has about 1/3 as many skiers as the other mountains on the Gravirax tour.
2. Locals---I road 11 lifts at Beaver and didn't share a chair with a single local.  I road 20 in Steamboat and only twice was I lucky enough to ride with a local.  Breck zero, Vail twice.  In Aspen I usually ride with a local almost 50% of the time.  The nice thing about skiing with locals is they know how to ski, where to ski and don't make the loading and unloading experience thrilling.
3. Long season---yes Buttermilk is closed and Highlands closes this week, but Aspen and Snowmass are open for two more weeks.  That means you can do awesome multi-sport adventures, my favorite being skiing and getting out on the river (Kevin M if you are reading this lets get the boat going).  Golf, cycling (motor, mountain and road), running and fishing are all also available to go along with the awesome corn snow.
4. Checking out marketing opportunities for our awesome ski rack (gravirax ) does give you a different perspective on ski towns.  In Aspen a great market for us is hotel SUVs which shuttle skiers to different mountains.  Guess what?  Vail, Boat, Beaver, and Breck don't have different mountains, ergo no SUV shuttles.  They do have short school buses which they use to take a load of skiers to the one ski hill, but in those towns you don't get the option to think Highlands? Ajax? Snowmass or the park or uphill Butter?  Nope you got one hill.  The power of 4 is Aspen awesome and a Gravirax good.
5. More Gravirax analysis---Aspen has more expensive cars than the rest of the towns combined.  I think 20% of the cars in Aspen are Range Rovers which are a great Gravirax car.  Who wants to dump their skis inside a nice Range Rover or climb to access a roof ski---Range Rover owners are great target customers.  When you spend an hour walking around the parking lots in Boat, Vail, Breck, and Beaver and see only a handful of Range Rovers---well Toto you know you aren't in Aspen  anymore.
6. People watching.  Sometimes just plain annoying but holy smokes the amount of plastic surgery you see in Aspen paired with outfits that cost more than houses or look like puffy aluminum foil--the people watching at Ajax has no comparison in North America.  

On the other hand some positives about the other mountains I saw on the Gravirax tour. 

1. T bar at Steamboat for Apres ski vs Ajax tavern---at the T bar you can get a 16 oz can of PBR for $4, at Ajax tavern a 12 oz bud costs you $8.  I will do the complicated math for you---a can of american lager is 264% more expensive in Aspen than Steamboat.  To do the not complicated math if you got $25 bucks in your pocket at the end of day in Steamboat you can buy 5 tall boy PBRs and tip $5, or you can buy 3 12 oz cans of bud and tip your bartender a buck.  Oh yea you can also get a pitcher of excellent draft beer at the T-bar for $22 and tip $3 bucks.  Pitchers in Aspen--I don't think so.  Thank goodness for the short school bus to give me a ride home after an hour at the T-bar.
2. The vibe at the base of Beaver sucks--its all pure resort community, but 7 minutes away you can be in river walk in Edwards which feels about as far away from a resort community as possible.  Lots of good restaurants at much more normal prices with lots of locals (who don't seem to ski Beaver).  Also some really steep groomers and some not so steep bump runs (if that is your thing) at the Beaver.
3. Breck---Breckenridge brew and pub.  Maybe the best mountain brewery around.  And lots of parking.  OMG I thought I might get lost in their parking lots looking for a Range Rover to sell a Gravirax to .
4. Vail---dear lord having I70 run right through your town sucks, but holy smokes the bowls are awesome.  And if those bowls are just too crowded or firm---there is some awesome stuff off of Gondola 1 that no one is skiing (clearly I didn't find Ms. Von during my Vail outing).

I will be coming to your ski town soon to check out Gravirax sales opportunities---please make sure to represent with your best skiers, people watching and happy hours.

more signs that aspen has jumped the shark

 yes, some local friends urged me to write something positive BUT they forgot the first rule of journalism ---if it bleeds it leads.  So please, forget those uncrowded ski slopes and beautiful views and let the boo birds out.

In today's paper the Aspen Aspen Music Festival and School announced that they were cutting the philharmonic program and number of students (and teachers etc) due to the housing crisis.  Story below.

No tunes for you

What is next?  Theater Aspen?  The physics institute?  God forbid what if the wait staff for your curated AspenX experience can't find housing.  What then?  

One of our more conservative local pundits also wrote in her weekly column that maybe the new affording housing development shouldn't have parking spaces (or mud rooms or storage spaces).  Cause you know the Aspen X workers can take the bus down valley to the grocery store and hospital and stay out of sight of our 0.001%ers who are going to spend their time not listening to music, physics lectures or seeing a show cause there is no housing.  What does a town look like that has only subsidized housing for workers and vacation homes for people worth more than $100M?  Given the current trend check out Aspen in 2 years to find out.

FYI the music school started in the late 40s.  

Have we jumped the shark?  Who knows but Aspen is getting uglier by the minute.

10 reasons Aspen and roaring fork valley real estate is close to a top

What is your Aspen home worth---whatever someone is willing to pay for it. 

If you bought your home in the past 1.5 years will you be underwater in a 1.5 years.  I think so.  Why?

1.  higher interest rates---when rates go up the cost of a mortgage goes up.  Rates are near all time lows in nominal terms and are currently very negative in real terms (ie lower than inflation).  The most recent inflation numbers were 7.9%---a 40 year high.  Monthly payments on a $1m mortgage at 3% is about $4,200 a month at 6% its about $6k per month and at 8% (where real interest rates would be about 0) you are talking $7.4k per month.  That is a lot more $$$s to come up with every month.   BUT you say Aspen buyers are all cash and they are flush.  Well ok, but if you think the businesses Mr. Rich owns ain't borrowing money or the assets they own won't go down if rates go up well maybe you are the perfect Aspen buyer.

2.  Crypto, NFTs and meme stocks---if these things don't tell you there has been too much money chasing too few assets ---well you also might be the perfect Aspen buyer---but to me it says asset bubble and when rates go up that bubble will get popped (see point 1).

3.  Rational people seriously discussing WWIII.  It's true.  I don't think a world war will be good for asset prices in general and roaring fork valley real estate in particular.  Wars tend to create inflation (see point 1 about higher rates) and living in a really remote location we are likely to get supply chain constrained.  Yes maybe there will be less nuclear fallout in Aspen than the coasts but really if you want a bomb shelter I would suggest a random acre of land anywhere in flyover territory and get a GC to start digging holes and pouring concrete.  Of course there is an acre of land zoned for a hotel at the base of Aspen mountain that just changed hands for $76.25 million if you are interested but maybe $50k for 10 acres in Nebraska makes more sense and you can use some of the $76,000,000 to pay for your shelter and supplies.

4.  Houses going under contract in less than a day.  You might say that is a sign of demand, I would suggest it's a sign of unhealthy demand or maybe even dare I say ......... a mania.

5.  Price increases that bear no resemblance to affordability-earnings.  (see point 8 below)

6.  Covid relocation is a story not a fact.  There has been no significant increase in the school population.  There is a story that people are moving here from the cities now that they don't have to go into the office.  I would suggest that is a 'story' without much basis in fact.  Yes people move here and they also move away from here---if this was true we would see our schools busting at the seems---instead the student body population is largely stable.  And now that Covid has become endemic people are returning to the office---yes you can work from home 2-3 days a week but going into the office is increasingly a requirement and with the private jets falling off the Aspen runway the commute from Aspen isn't always easy.

7.  Second (and 3rd and 4th homes) tend to experience more price volatility.  Home owners want to hold onto their primary homes, not so much their 3rd home.

8.  Supply is increasing---real estate supply takes awhile to come on line in the best of times, and after COVID between worker shortages and supply chain challenges new home supply is taking longer than usual, BUT supply is coming.  Maybe not so much on Red Mountain in Aspen but it is in Snowmass and for sure it's coming to the mid valley.  Homes in the mid valley were changing hands for $350 a square foot 3 years ago and are now flying off the shelf at $800 a foot.  There are 100s of homes being developed in the mid valley to meet that demand, a number of which are being built by first time GCs working without plans.  Do you know anyone whose W2 pay has gone up 130% over the last 3 years or even more as interest rates rise?  To put this simply 3 years ago a family with income of $250k a year could buy a 3500 square foot home in the mid valley for $1.2M, put down $300k and have a $900k mortgage costing them around $4k per month.  Same house today is gonna cost about $3m---they are going to have to put down around $600k and their monthly mortgage is gonna be about $13k per month.  I guess if their earnings have gone from $250k to $600k a year they could swing it---but it didn't.

9.  Aspen real estate is a great place to hide your money if your 'dodgy' (Russian, Chinese, Middle East etc).  That was for sure true---until we saw the Biden administration slap sanctions on Russian Oligarchs.  If the US  is going to freeze bank accounts, grab super yachts and suspend passports why would a home on Red Mountain or Wild Cat ranch be safe.

10.  Asset prices are DOWN.  NASDAQ is in a bear market (down more than 20%) and the S&P is in correction territory (down 13%).  Bitcoin is way under all of its moving averages.  And my favorite way to track new hot money wealth ARKK fund is off a whopping 60+% from its all time high.  Ouch.

Bottom line   If you want to buy a home that has appreciated by 200+% over the past 3 years in a market that is dominated by second and third home buyers (ie speculators) in a mania as rates are going up, supply goes up, demand by primary home owners is unchanged, and asset prices are declining have at it---me I will continue to sit this one out.  And if I had bought a home 5 years ago I would be selling it now---in a couple of years when new owners start wanting to sell their homes  as maintenance and hassle eat into the joy of their Aspen home my guess is the clearing price will be MUCH lower than it is today.

 

10 things i hate about aspen

 Sorry, been away way too long.  Been too busy selling gravirax  to post-- here it goes.

My big prediction at the end of December was that 2022 was going to be the year of anger.  Not a tuff predication given how widely unpopular Joe Biden is while really doing nothing wrong.  I mean, shoot, can you really get that pissed off about suggesting that Medicare cover hearing aids and dentures or paid family leave or even OMG promoting clean energy while the stock market was at near record highs at the end of 2021? (oh yeah, that clean energy that helps reduce global dependence on oil and gas from the USSR is looking like a good strategic move as well).  Well, yeah, guess you can be that pissed at Joe (with our wonderful local Congress Rep Lauren Boebert blaming Joe for killing US service men while he spoke of his son's death due to his service to his country). 

Anyhow, stuff that pisses me off about Aspen:

10.  Calling Tasters to order a pizza at 6 pm and being told 'we are too busy to do take out orders'

9.  having the airport closed twice in a week due to private jets falling off the runway 

8.  Trying to rent Buckhorn cabin on Aspen mountain, and being directed to Aspen X, who told me they could curate an awesome apres ski experience for $18k for 10 people (that includes snowcat down at end of day and champagne and music).  To be fair, you can still rent it out for $200 for the deck and grills, and an additional $50 or 100 for each toboggan ski patrol needs to use to bring food and drink to the deck. But, guess who gets first 'dibs' on the space?

7.  Being told by out of town friends they went to Element 47 and the St. Regis where the dinner was super expensive and pretty much inedible, and they look at me for some kinda explanation, and all I can do is shrug my shoulders and say I haven't eaten anywhere but Home Team in 2 years because I can't afford it

6.  Not being able to find seltzer to buy in our grocery stores---for a year.  Aren't the food supply chain issues supposed to be over?

5.  Flying in and out of Aspen---my wife and son have spent a total of 6 additional nights in various Dallas hotels over two trips due to various flight issues (including the aforementioned private jets off the end of the runway), requiring them both times to be diverted to Grand Junction, and once requiring me to pick them up in GJ 

4.  Bad money---from Hunt to Roman Abramovich to Gorsuch

3.  Speaking of our dear local friend Jeff Gorsuch, he lobbied and pressed the flesh to get the Gorsuch Haus hotel in the lift 1A corridor approved, by the skin of his man fur, by stressing local development and deep local connections.  He just flipped the .95 acre of land that is zoned for his hotel (.95 of an acre for a hotel WTF) that he bought from Aspen Ski Co less than 1 year ago for $10 million.  He sold the land and development rights to a Soviet oligarch for $76.25 million this past week.  So much for local ownership.  I guess Jeff G doesn't mind being two steps away from Ukrainian blood on his hands, and I would say I am going to boycott Gorsuch, BUT I never could afford anything there anyhow.

Picture of Gorsuch Haus with some local feelings being expressed with the ultimate shade being 'go back to Vail'   ohhh my

2.  Aspen Ski Co who charges $2,900 for a Premier season pass.  The same season pass for Squaw, or Vail or Steamboat is between $500 and $1,000.  You would figure with ski co renting out the Buckhorn cabin (sorry 'curating experiences' ) for $18k, having a 'snow beach' with cabanas renting out for $2,200), serving two day old salads in plastic clam shell containers at Gwens --whoops sorry High Alpine for $22 AND being comfortable leaving $66M on the table selling land to Jeff Gorsuch only to wind up with a Soviet as a partner in their building project, they could just maybe see their way to lowering the cost of a season's pass.

              Ski Co Snow beach ($2k)                            Green Acres Snow Beach (no $K's)

1.  The price of everything ---but more than anything real estate.  This is all on one street in Snowmass.

Sold in Jan 2021 for $1438 a square foot---new build awesome views 5.2k feet

Sold in April 2021 for $ 1250 a square foot older build needs work 3.6k feet

Same road (almost impossible building site, great views, 2k square foot house, but its a total scraper asking $6.3m, basically for the land)  scrape it and build less than 5k feet

Or, you could spend the same amount and move to Santa Barbara with views of the ocean and be living in this tomorrow (as opposed to moving into the above scraper in 3-4 years having spent around $11m.)

santa bararbra palace

Am I angry enough for the yah?

Did Aspen Real Estate jump the shark?

 you make the call (I am no good at picking tops)

Middle school principal quits job---becomes real estate agent

Young local accountant tries to rent friends basement--aware there is no natural light or shower or kitchen says 'ill take anything '

GC is busting his butt to deliver neighbor's house on time (delivery date two days ago)---got busted last week for turning street into parking lot--37 trucks for 1 job site.  Fined GC and drivers---no one cares making too much money.  Also failed to deliver on time----still not heat for the family for x-mas---how very Aspen Dickens.

TDR's (transfer development rights) ---the right to build an extra 250 square feet above code (per TDR) trades at $1.8m up from aprox $200k for the past 5 years.  (ie about a 900% jump in about a year).

Every local I know who is not in real estate is talking (yes talk is cheap) about moving.

Poll in the local paper about how difficult is it to get a table for dinner lately---not sure I will never be able to afford to eat out in Aspen again leads results with 60% of the vote (there are 5 different options).

A bit of land that I looked at buying 6 years ago for $4m sells for $20m (and sold 5 months ago for 15m).

Another local hunt (SU Casa ) will be gone---Mark Hunt adding it to his portfolio of land banked (ie vacant) properties.

The city council is trying to reduce prices by stopping development and short term rentals.  Maybe I missed something in econ class but reducing supply is an interesting way to lower prices---might I suggest eliminating all rules regarding development to both increase supply and reduce demand by making Aspen a less awesome place (more traffic, less views, more Texans).

merry x-mas.

PS its raining.

naked teen hockey players (and another vent about getting screwed with my rental)

 i figured naked would get your attention so I put that in the title as click bait.

Seems our fearless board of health has decided the best way to keep COVID to a minimum is to have hockey players (both boys-men, girls-woman) change outside the locker room so that they don't have to share a confined space while wearing a mask at all times---my daughter was kind enough to inform me that doing suicides at the end of an hour of dryland and an hour skate with a mask on the whole time is ----suicidal.  My son helpfully pointed out that clearly the board of health hasn't been in the high school lunch room where kids are packed tight without masks (or to a restaurant).

Still the end result is naked hockey players changing in the rink.  Safe Sport is having a fit.

We went under contract on a bit of land to build a home.  Then during disclosure the developer provided the soils report that called out the risk of a sink hole in our building envelope. The developer offered to lean on the soils guy to re-write the report (does that make a sink hole magically go away?) While my most excellent insurance guy informed me that he couldn't insure against a sink hole.  We walked (ran) happily away from that property.

Our current rental ($20k a month up from a similar location-home when we moved her six years ago of $7.5k a month) continues to have issues.  Some of which are:

1.  water soaked hot tub cover making hot tub largely unusable (since before we moved in).

2.  poor heat in master bedroom that was called out in May but supposed to be offset by fireplace which doesn't work

3.  Washing machines were replaced and work but we are at close to 20 days of workers here and it ain't done yet (patching walls, painting, electrical sockets etc (lets not forget 3 weeks without a working washing machine)

4.  Windows that don't open (in my son's room--I mean if you are gonna hot box your room you dang well want to be able to open the windows)

5.  bathrooms without door hardware

6.  elevator not working (told in May would be working when we moved in)

7.  bald face lie from broker re rodents---I asked if there is a rodent problem, and the agent said 'no' uh except for the 14 that were killed in May which we found out from Orkin after we moved in

So we asked for compensation--seems to us that if you can't open the windows, close the bathroom door, wash your clothes, use the hot tub etc you shouldn't be asked to pay full rent that is supposed to include those things in the contract.

The owner feels otherwise.  He thinks that since we got such a discount (we paid his listed rental price) that we are not entitled to a refund.  I have no clue what to do---go to court?  Seems like I will pay lots of money in legal fees to get a little money back from the owner.   

Bottom line---do not rent in Aspen-Snowmass Village.  Ever single owner has fucked us.  Every fucking one.  And the real estate agencies that are making a fortune couldn't give a shit from what I can tell.  Rental contracts are best used as toilet paper.  For a small town Aspen sure is full of a bunch of assholes.  

PS While I am ranting---I just got a notification of COVID-19 exposure for one of my kids (which one-they won't say to protect the privacy of the person with COVID).  Who the person is with COVID so we can evaluate the risk--did they just pass each other in the halls or did they spend the night sharing a joint?  If this is Pitkin contact tracing why bother?  Thank goodness the naked hockey girls are all wearing masks.

fun stuff

 started a biz making and selling awesome ski racks---why stick your skis on top of your car when you can use a hitch mount---if it is good enough for your bikes why not your skis?

Gravirax

That has me pretty busy ergo fewer posts.

But some other fun facts ---Pitkin has an unofficial policy for covid--we are aiming for herd immunity.  Pretty much everyone has it but life continues as normal except for the sick folks.  Wonder what the end of shoulder season and prime x-mas-new years will bring.

We got no snow---well you can top to bottom on Aspen but that is about it, which ain't too bad if you are a local and looking to get a couple of laps in on a sunny 50 degree day but kinda sucks if you travel here and are paying a bunch of money.  Silver lining is Ski Co doesn't need a lot of employees to manage a couple of 100 acres of skiable terrain so the employee shortage don't matter.

Daughter's hockey is in full swing--one of her teammates was ejected from a game and has to sit out an additional game because VAIL sucks :)  

Also they now have to wear masks all the time---last night post practice all I heard about was how doing suicides in a mask sucks.  I told her back in my day...........---ok it does suck.

And her team now has to change in the open because COVID is really bad in locker rooms I guess (has anyone from the  heath board looked at the high school lunchroom?).   Meanwhile SafeSport is having a fit.

We went under contract on a bit of land near Wilts and then in disclosure found that a soils report indicated a chance of a sink hole in our building envelope.  Called my insurance guy who said 'never heard of that in CO and after looking into it we can't insure against a sink hole'.  We are back to the drawing board and I guess the top in real estate isn't in yet cause that can only happen after we buy something.

Lastly and surely least our Congressional Rep Lauren Bobert continues to be ummmm special.  Kinda wish a special school bus could take her away to a special place for people who serve tainted meat at the state fair, endanger their kids in their car, ignore health regulations at their restaurant, and wear a gun everywhere cause they are a scared little bi@ch.  Good news is it seems with her GED level education she hasn't figured out what Congress does nor how to actually do anything (good or ill) for her community outside of saying nasty things.  Would someone from the real world in the GOP please primary her?

Anyone want a rack?