guest blogger (its deep and worth reading for thanksgiving)

A Thanksgiving Reflection (by the WIFE)

We have a new rule in our house.  I can't start the day discussing politics or the pandemic.  I can't begin with strife if I am to view the rising of the sun like the rising of hope.  What seems most clear to me right now is that we, the people living our lives right now, are not special.  It is not our fate to live without suffering,  Whether its slaves under Pharaoh, Africans chained in boats, Jews in WWII, Londoners during the Blitz, or Tutsis and Hutus in Rwanda, unimaginable suffering has happened through the ages,  We are no better or more special in some way that absolves us of the possibility of deep tragedy and suffering, There is nothing new going on here,  If you are somehow lucky enough to be rich/connected/ powerful in such a way that you are sheltered from the storm, that isn't new either.  People paid others to take their place in the Civil War, people used connections to avoid Vietnam.  My father in law, a great man who is on his deathbed, stepped up and did his duty in Vietnam as a doctor.  His job was to triage, to quickly assess who could be saved and who had to be left to die.  Nurses and doctors in ICUs across the country are being asked to do the same right now.  This is a terrible and terrifying and sad but it is not new.  

Fear, anger, and divisiveness are tightly connected, and amplified by the kind of circumstances in which we find ourselves.  But I think instead of screaming at each other, we need to find our humanity and help each other.  Like we teach our children at school, we need to ask ourselves; am I a stand-up person or a stand-by person?  We need to answer hate and fear with empathy and compassion if this is ever going to end.

We need to try to accept the un-acceptable.  Businesses won't make it.  People will die.  Here in Pitkin County, we have created our own color--Orange Plus.  Orange Plus is probably not going to get it done.  It's a Hail Mary, a grasping effort to halt the inevitable.  Or, maybe, it will be just enough. Who am I to judge?

I do not believe in a cruel God, but I know there were people consigned to life in a wheelchair a week before the polio vaccine became available.  There was a last man to die as Armistice was declared.  Now, there will be businesses and people irrevocably damaged right before we get a solution to our current problem.  Orange Plus is a last gasp effort to fight what might be inevitable, and sometimes we just can't face that.  It's too much.

I personally don't think we have that kind of power.  Our collective belief in our ability to manipulate the swirling water of life in our chosen direction is overstated.  What am I being called to do?  What is the next right step for me to take?  Those question, and the ability to reach out a helping hand are things I can control.  Outcomes?  Not so much. My fervent hope for this Thanksgiving is that we an all find ways to help and support each other, with sure knowledge that we are all trying to be our best selves.

Tomorrow I will return to regular programing of bitter sarcasm.

my son's favorite word, and a modest proposal for Aspen school district

 my 17 year old son's favorite word is...............

LATER

yup that pretty much sums up life with a 17 year old boy:

walk dogs?      later

do dishes!!      later

do your laundry!!!!  later

college prep            much later

find a partner for sailing        later, maybe, I don't know, I don't want to look needy

and yet it mostly gets done.  not on my time frame.  not how I like.   But he is getting As, speaking at the school board meeting, keeping his room clean and sending emails to college coaches.  Is it getting done how I want, when I want?  No, but it is getting done.

Speaking of the Aspen School District.

A modest proposal to school during a pandemic:

 

ASD’s goal should be to provide the best education possible while ensuring the safety of our community.  To that end I would suggest k-7 go full time in person unless community spread becomes so great as to move the district to full online.  

 

8-12 would go full online with the online delivery platform that was designed over the summer, implemented at the start of the school year, and was working well for many students.  K-7 would then be able to use the additional space vacated by 8-12 to provide appropriate social distancing.

 

For the exceptions, the students in the 8-12 group who aren’t successful with online school without adult oversight could go to school, where they will be in the gyms with a proctor overseeing them as they work online.  This model has already proven successful with the special education kids.

 

ASD full in person schooling can resume once the population is vaccinated and/or COVID rates have dropped to New Zealand levels.

 

Why?  Teaching students online and remote at the same time is a much worse educational delivery mechanism than full remote.  Asking students to do four 85-minute class periods online, with 30 minutes for lunch is mind numbing. Try it. Believing that kids in masks sitting six feet apart from each other is going to solve the social emotional situation is wishful thinking. Thinking that AHS students aren’t already out and about with each other is ludicrous. And acting as if there will be no damage if we send @1,000 people to campus when Covid is on the rise is delusional. 

 

We all want the best safe education for our community possible.  ASD developed a strong online teaching platform over the summer, let’s leverage it.

I like the idea of you, and then you talk

 my daughter said that to me when I suggested.........well anything.

Its also kinda like that with everything.

1.  I like the idea of in person school, and then I realize its going to be a hybrid model with the students go in person every 4 days with 85 min classes and teachers teaching online and in person at the same time.

2.  I like the idea of opening the ski mountain, but not the town closing due to COVID

3.  I like the idea of not wearing masks, but hate community spread of COVID

4.  I like the idea of a free ski pass, but hate spending 3 hours getting the hard sell on a time share

5.  I like the idea of dogs, but hate the hair and their needy walks

ETC ya get the point.  My mom used to work for a guy named Barry Commoner---he was noted for saying 'there is no such thing as a free lunch'.  And he is right.  I love the idea of tax cuts and higher pay for teachers and a big infrastructure spend, but guess what.......

And to my daughter I say, do what you know you are supposed to and maybe what comes out of my mouth will be praise and not nagging.

And yea I nag too much and its not working---next up threats :) 

Aspen School District shits the bed with new 'hybrid' model

OMG what a beautiful example of trying to find something for everyone and instead creating something that won't work for anyone (or at least the majority of students).

Our high school plan is as follows:

1.  Divid the school into two groups--group A goes to school in person for the first week and group B goes the second week.  If kids in group A don't feel comfortable going in person they can go remote full time (but MUST decide before the week starts and stay committed to in person --why who knows).  Repeat.  

2.  Teachers will teach in person and remote cohorts synchronously (at the same time).

3.  Students will have 4- 85 minute classes a day (with 5 minute passing periods) and a 45 minute lunch--except most teachers are running over (yes running over with an 85 minute class--didn't see that coming)

4.  Some teachers will choose to teach remotely themselves.  What does that look like?  English class being taught in the gym with 8 kids in person in the gym looking at their computers while10 remote students are on their screens  and the  teacher teachers from their home on a computer.

5.  No school on Wednesday (so they can clean).

6.  Each class is only taught twice a week (so for example English Monday and Thursday, Math Tuesday and Friday).

7.  Kids that are in school will have their movements restricted (yes bowl movements too---if you want to go to the bathroom you have to get permission and if someone else is using the bathroom on your floor well ya better hold it till the end of the day).

OMG.  OMG.  OMG.  85 minute class periods!!!!!!  WTF.  No school on Wednesday.  Class only twice a week (forget reinforcement).  Did I mention that is 6 hours of screen time a day just for school.  Add in 2-5 hours for homework and ---well I would like to ask the pediatricians who all recommended the kids go to school what they think about 9 hours of screen time a day and 85 minute classes (and no opportunity to take a crap).

And ya don't need a PHD in education to know that trying to teach to students in person and online at the same time is nigh impossible.

Full remote was working---people just didn't like it.  This solution is a heaping pile of crap that our kids are being tossed into---our school administrators should be ashamed.

ARGGGGGGG.   

COVID pricing--it stinks

Aspen real estate up about 20% (along with rentals)

Take out has added a 15% service charge (not delivery mind you but to just pick up the food costs 15%)

Visit to the Doc--can't see them without a COVID test --cost $200 and they won't submit it to insurance

Ski pass--up about 20% and who knows what kind of product you are getting at that higher price point

paper towels and TP up between 200-300%

cost of gas at the pump up, price of oil down

and don't even begin to ask about the cost of higher education (up) product being delivered (way down)

I guess this is a weird rehash of the 80s stagflation

speaking of the 80s I suggest everyone put on a little VH and remember so fun rock and roll--Eddie Van Halen you will be missed

what the heck is up with those pants?

The truth about ski passes

 Ski Co has announced new ski passes.  They are about 20% higher than prior years.  

That is what we know for sure.

Next,  what SkiCo hopes:

1.  SkiCo hopes they can open the mountain and keep it open from November 26th, to April 15.

2.  They will try to limit the number of people on chair lifts and gondolas to groups of people in same vector---resulting in longer lift lines even if there are fewer skiers.

3.  They hope to have restaurants open, but are not sure how they are going to do that in a COVID safe way.

4.  They hope to have bathrooms open, but are not sure how to do that in a COVID safe way.

5.  They hope not to have to implement a reservation system but they might have to to stay COVID safe

6.  They will refund a prorated portion of your ski pass if the mountain closes due to COVID, less 10 days and insurance.  Let me put some numbers on this--assuming a ski season of nov 26-april 15, and the mountain closing for the season on Jan 10 ish due to lots of community spread over x-mas-new years winter break that would mean if you bought a $2,400 primer pass with $170 insurance, you would be refunded about $1,200 of your $2,570 cost of purchasing a pass and insurance.  Lets assume of those first 45 days the mountain is open you ski a day in November (lets say the snow sucks, and 10 days prior to x-mas break and then a reservation system goes in place and you only get 3 days in over 'winter break' and then you get in another 4 days before they shut the mountain ---that is a total of 18 days which cost you $76 bucks a day).  I will let you judge how good a deal that is.

Bottom line--the price of a pass has gone up 20% and pass buyers are being forced to assume all the risks of the quality of the product being provided and the ability to actually use the services the pass provides.  

Harvard Business School professors will tell you raising prices while cutting services and asking your customer to bear the risks is not a business strategy they recommend ---perhaps SkiCo's Covid response will become a case study some day.

holy smokes

 Last week I drove my wife to and from Billings MT for a work meeting (don't ask).

WY has some of the more awesome views in our country, and I was looking forward to enjoying the views and listening to lots of rock and roll.  Nothing like listening to Led Zep Ramble On while driving 90 along a two lane highway enjoying amazing views and praying not to hit wildlife.

And I got the opportunity to get away from my kids.  Wooooooo Hooooooo.

In the 300+ miles I drove in WY guess what I didn't see.  Mountains.  Not a single one.  Visibility was limited to less than a mile and was often a lot less than that.  The air tasted like shit and looked like it too.  Across all of WY and MT.  

Something else I didn't see much of was gas stations.  When you are driving out west and you got less than 150 miles of range left on your car I would advise starting to look for a gas station.  Bizarrely for this midwest-east coast guy there were almost no gas stations along interstate 25.  Weird right?  We got off the highway to get gas at Midwest WY (pop 390) where the gas station was 7 miles off the highway.  If you got an electric car; WY and MT are not for you.

Before we got off the highway we passed a fire in the brush next to the highway.  A single police cruiser was blocking the lane closer to the fire that was licking the highway, but at that point I could still drive north.  After a quick fill up in Midwest (not a mask in sight) the digital billboard by the entrance to I25 indicated the road to the South was closed due to the fire we drove through.  

Bingo.

The upside to wildfires everywhere is when they close the highway behind you and all 8 emergency responders within 150 miles are trying to put the fire out, the speed limit becomes whatever you like.  While I didn't get a picture of my spedo because my knuckles were white and the wife asleep,  I can say I think the top speed of my Tahoe is faster than 113 MPH that Chevy claims (maybe a dry hot tail wind and a downhill section helped).  Their ya have it.  One bonus to the west being on fire.

But aside from that, I am really not seeing any other benefits.  I can't understand why anyone in the western states would vote for anyone who doesn't have an environmental plan.  I didn't exercise or do anything outside in Billings because breathing was dangerous.  WY ranchers are going to watch their cattle burn, or at a minimum starve to death as the prairie burns.  Eventually even the idiots will stop recreating outside as everyone develops asthma.  And what is the point of having a view if you can't see it.  You couldn't have a more in your face reason to say climate change is real, and something needs to be done before the back 40 burns.  

Back home no evidence of a party ( a little disappointed in the boy) but we did find some Jul pods and puff bars.  Nothing like getting a head start on respiratory issues before the entire country is covered in smoke.

PS Billings---I don't see any appeal.  Kinda looked like a love child of Cleveland and Detroit without the lakes.  

Beautiful Billings

The sun ain't supposed to look like that

Who stole the mountains (and trust me my crap phone camera isn't doing the air justice)