So much so that she doesn't want to isolate. She doesn't want to have me bring her food. She wants to head to the kitchen and cook. She is going to kill the rest of us. (and to those who propose putting everyone who might be positive in their own hotel room to isolate---how much psychological damage do you think you are going to do to kids age 0-14)?????
Being a guy who stays on top of the news, I was aware that the Trump Administration is going to recommend wearing some kind of mask to reduce the spread of COVID-19. These are the same team who said do not wear a mask, only people who are symptomatic can infect others, provided a CDC test kit that didn't work, thought it would go away when it's warm (Donald J being a biggly believer of that forget that its summer in Australia and COVID is doing just fine in warmer weather thank you) and went from no social distancing to wanting to lock down the whole country after COVID-19 community spread is everywhere.
this is me standing in line for the grocery in my new TRUMP approved COVID prevention outfit
Please note the AVSC buff and the Make America Deep (POW) cap, supporting our local causes. The woman in line behind me asks me to move closer to the person in front of me, I said no I am standing 6 feet back. I then look over my shoulder and find her standing about 1 foot behind me. I told her to get the hell back 6 feet. The EXCELLENT thing about wearing a buff is I can be even more of an asshole and maybe not be recognized. Thank you President Trump.
So now we get to the OMG we are all going to die. I get back in the car post shop and turn on CNN and Dr. Brix (one of the so called adults in the room) who is answering a question concerning false negatives being possibly as high as 33% (and still talking like anyone can get a test not just actors and prices and senators). She said well that can't be the case because in NY and NJ the tests are coming back 35% positive so if the false negative rate was 33% then it would be 100% positive. She then kinda, but not completely corrected herself to say the positive rate would then be 66%.
Dear readers are you smarter than Dr. Brix?
If 35% of people tested are positive and the test has a false negative rate (i.e. it says your negative when you are positive) of 33% then what percent of people are positive:
- A 100%
- B 66% (per Dr Brix basically adding 33% plus 35%)
- C 0% if you are a Trump supporter and 100% if your a democrat
- D 33% (there are so many 3s the answer must have lots of 3s in it)
- E 12% (35% X 33% right?)
- F none of the above
If you went with none of the above you are right and Dr. Brix is wrong. The answer is 56% (or 56.45 if you want to be exact). Assume a sample of 100 people---35 test positive---put those folks in lock down for the second step of the problem. That leaves you with 65 negatives, of those 65 negatives 1/3 are actually positive (that is the false negative rate of 33%) --that is 21.45 people. Grab the other 35 positive folks and add em up and you get 56.45%. How big of a difference is 56% vs 66%. Well its about 32 million people if you want to look at the US population as a whole. Also if you take that kind of a screw up and shove it into exponential growth you have widely different outcomes.
Might I make a suggestion---all online school should be basic math ( in particular statistics). Forget geometry, if I run into one more person who tells me if the stock market goes down 50% and then up 50% they are back to even on their investment (you are 75% of the way to where you started) or to put it in current terms the S&P high to recent low was a drop of 36%, but to regain the highs the S&P must go up 55% from its recent low.
Of course maybe the kids should skip the math, and just get drunk and have sex cause with the jokers in Washington in charge we are all gonna die.
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