bubble bubble toil and.....this is not an April fools joke

 It seems the country is in the midst of a housing bubble.  Where did all these buyers come from?  It's like during COVID 35% of the country decided they needed to buy a home which has depleted the housing stock country wide to close to zero.

And whatever the country does Aspen does on steroids.

As you might remember we sold our home in Chicago Nov 3rd and made a huge mistake by not buying something the next day in the roaring fork valley.

In the past year housing prices across the entire valley are up 30-50%.  There are almost no homes for sale now and if you buy land finding a decent builder with capacity could take a year.  Figure if you buy today and move super fast maybe-- just maybe you can move in 2 1/2 years (yea the permitting process has a line out the door, architects, builders and all the subs are booked out years).

Anyhow we saw 4 homes recently.

This is the first one we saw in Snowmass Village (horse ranch).  

crap 80s build with leaks everywhere

They are asking 1k a square foot.  They were asking $700 a square foot in 2019 and you probably could have bought it for $650.  We walk in and you can see water damage everywhere, smell mold and feel moisture through the floor.  A quick look at the exterior shows more water damage on the walls and deck.  Basically no need to do an inspection.  It's a 35 year old house that hasn't been maintained and needs to be scrapped.  FYI buildable lots were selling in this hood for $1m a year ago and now you are looking at spending $4.5 for a scraper and then you got to pay for demo and landfill on top of that.  The people looking to buy it were in their 70s---by the time they can move in they will be dead or on oxygen.  As an added bonus the listing agent has done some cat fish photo shop whatever pics of what the place might look like after gut rehab--course that ain't gonna fix the leak in the roof or the foundation.

Next up 

another home asking $1k a square foot---off faraway road.

brr its cold in here

When you have every window open in mid march at 9k feet well ya know they are trying to cover up a smell.  Why bother, they also had candles and diffusers along with two pots collecting water dripping out of the ceiling.  While it wasn't raining outside it was raining inside.  This is an open house with an active leak, mothballs and mold smell which could be yours for $1k a square foot.  It also comes with mouse crap in the corners, a beautiful 1997 kitchen aid dishwasher and a plywood door to the garage.  

Next up down valley ---a 5 min walk to downtown Basalt.  A 3.2k square foot home for sale for $2.8 million.  Uh that is $875 a square foot and too small for our needs.  Check out the hood and its very tight to your neighbors (like you can look out the master bedroom window into their back yards and see their rusting out cars).  We were told there was an additional 1.3k of FAR available to build on which would be a neat trick because the house is in a hole---so while the MAN might say you can build mother nature says no way.  Did I mention all windows open again, cracks in tiles and walls and bouncy floors.  Houses in this hood were selling for $400-$500 a foot 3 months ago---so yea they are asking about 90% more than houses were selling for in January for cracked walls, mold, and either miss laid flooring and or foundation leak.  

Oh yea and they lied about the size of the garage ---quoted at 700 square feet but my trusted tape measure puts its at 450.  Agent said well you need to include the mechanical room--I said no you don't and BTW that only puts it at 530 feet.  When people lie on the first date---well I have trouble with that.

Which brings me to the best which I saved for last.

only a fool would buy this

Ahhh where to start---maybe with the finish---he just raising the asking price $200k.

So this house is new construction--I figure hey get involved before finishes and maybe we get make sure we get stuff we really like.  Excellent.  This is what happened.

1. We asked for blueprints---after two weeks we got non-construction grade blueprints (the house is currently being framed).
2. We asked for a spec package detailing what I am getting for my $2.5 million (what kind of cabinets, windows, appliances, fixtures etc---the builder-developer, architect, designer couldn't deliver that
3. we went and looked at the house---there were no blueprints on site, but the builder, owner, developer and it turns out architect is also a tradesman swinging a hammer--there are two other semi-competent guys doing framing and one 14 year old kid hammering nails into things and then pulling them out---But for any of you who have ever been involved in a building project when was the last time you went on site and didn't see plans (answer never--and why because they don't exist he is literally making it up as he goes along---how he got permits is anyones guess)
4. when I asked the builder, developer tradesman dude what happened to the lower level being at grade so the lower level had windows and a walk out patio he said the grading was too expensive once they got into it so they didn't do it---which also saves them building a deck on main floor--what other corners do you think he will cut, and of course with no spec package you have no legal recourse because he hasn't made any promises as to what he will actually deliver
5. when i asked about the panty in the non-construction grade plans he sent me he said the house was big enough not to need a pantry---but hey he doesn't cut corners except losing 6 windows, one pantry, one bedroom and a deck
6. when i asked about the square footage he obfuscated but finally came clean that he was including the garage space (aprox 850 square feet) in the livable space of the home quote for the home
7. when i asked how many other homes he had built he said 3 or 4 (Come on is it 3 or 4 and are you including this one in that number) when I asked if I could see those homes he said the only one I could see he and his family were living in---ie the only reference he would give me was himself
8. When I asked who the architect was he said ----ummm well I stole the plans from Peak and now I am the architect.  When I asked him what certifications he had he looked out the window
9. when I asked about adding solar he said he didn't have experience (right answer is sure we can do that have to price it out with a good solar sub) same with radiant heat---he said "I don't like radiant heat and with the foundation poured we can't do that'---builder buddies tell me if there is any truth to that lie
10.  and on and on and on

So is it possible that someone gets are really well built house with good finishes for ----well now $2.65M and rising and it doesn't have construction grade finishes, warp, crack etc---sure and if you buy a powerball ticket you could win that as well.  But when every Tom Dick and Harry is starting to build homes you know its bubbly--how close to the top is anyones guess and what pops it even more so but if you don't need a rain coat to walk around in this last house a year after you move in I will be amazed.  And in the meantime thank GOD for COVID ---wearing the N95 mask while house hunting really helps keep the mold spoors out of your lungs.