going on day 3.
And it's been closed for long periods of time over the past 3 years. Why? Ostensibly fire followed by mud and rock slides due to the fire. But really it's climate change.
How much does it cost our country to have one of the major East-West arteriest closed?
Answer---a lot.
So maybe when it comes time to vote and your pissed about travel times or scarcity of goods, vote for the party that actually believes in science and has proposals to help limit climate disruption.
On July 3rd a Hawker Beechcraft G36 left Aspen airport. At the last minute the pilots decided against taking their pre planned route out of Aspen or the route taken by virtually every plane to the south. They instead decided to circle over Aspen, gain as much altitude as they could and fly up Hunter Creek Valley. Fourteen miles later at just under 11k vertical they crashed into some trees near a meadow near mid valley pass. Both passengers-(who were also pilots) died.
Yesterday we decided to hike to the crash site. I wouldn't recommend this---while not a super hard hike, it is not visible and for the inexperienced represents a great opportunity to get lost.
Below are some pictures I took.
The first step in finding a solution is accurately identifying the problem. Even before identifying the problem you must get data.
Some data:
On my regular dog walk I pass 42 houses in my neighborhood. Of those 42 homes, 3 are occupied by full time residents. I am defining full time residents as someone who spends more than 6 months out of the year in their home. Of those 3 families two are long term renters, leaving one full time owner in my neighborhood. And when my lease is up my home will join the other 40 houses and become a member of the part time housing stock. The owner of the other long term renal house is also considering selling or moving to short term rentals meaning pretty soon this neighborhood of 42 homes could be down to one mostly (she spends 4-5 months a year elsewhere) full time family.
Is that anyone's idea of a neighborhood?
Is that a problem?
If so, what is the solution?
My answers to those questions are: NO, YES, and heck I don't know.
Some additional data. A most excellent friend of mine needs to hire two people to keep his business running. He is paying $60k a year. He has found employees he wants to hire, BUT they can't find housing. I thought I might be able to help so I looked at the new Willits 7 affordable housing project which being 20 miles away is not exactly in the community (ie school district) but because it's out of the community is more 'affordable'. One of his hires is married and their spouse also makes $60k a year. With combined family income of $120k they make too much money to qualify for housing in Willits 7---for two the max income to qualify for Willits 7 housing is $104,747---even if they have a child their income is too high to qualify. In another example of weird housing qualifications at Willits 7, for a single individual moving into a 1 bedroom the max income is $91,654 and they are not allowed to have more than 33% of your gross income go to rent which means for a one bedroom your minimum gross income is $69,127 a year. So basically if you are a single person making between $70k and $90k a year apply for a one bedroom in Willits 7--everyone else piss off.
Neighborhoods in the Aspen area that are mostly full of full time families are the affordable housing neighborhoods. When you drive through them they feel a lot more like Mr. Roger's neighborhood. People know each other, kids are playing outside with other kids in the 'hood, trick-or-treating is excellent, etc. But those 'affordable' housing neighborhoods come with their own significant cost. First, the homes are only affordable relative to Aspen pricing, in many other ski communities you can buy a free market home for between $300-400 a square foot. In Aspen $350 a foot gets you a deed restricted home. What is the problem with that? Well no financial advisor would suggest investing the majority of your net worth in a home that can't really appreciate in value. Even worse, doing improvements or maintenance on your home is gonna be Aspen expensive and none of that can be recouped when you sell. Bottom line, many of those older affordable housing communities are kinda decrepit as owners either can't afford to do repairs or due to the economic disincentives of owning a deed restricted home choose not to do maintenance and improvements.
So what kind of community do you get when you move to Aspen-Snowmass? Neighborhoods that are less than 10% occupied resulting in no sense of community (I could walk my dogs naked and not risk seeing any full time residents). The deed restricted neighborhoods feel a bit like ghettos where residents are accepting financial punishment to live and work in their community. And employers who increasingly can't find housing for their employees within 40 miles of where they work. Bottom line what does the Aspen-Snowmass housing look like? Vast numbers of homes that are unoccupied the majority of the time with small ghettos where workers accept punitive financial terms to live near where they work and a majority of the workers living in other communities.
Mr. Roger's neighborhood didn't look anything like that, and I don't believe anyone would suggest that is the description of a healthy community.
Reflecting on billboards and various other signage I saw while driving with my son from CO to RI (through KS, MO, IL, IN, OH, Penn, NY, NH, ME, MA, CT, and VT) if I was to compile a list of the top 5 signs I saw along the highway my unscientific analysis would be:
5. Porn (with MO being the dominant state in this category)
4. Fireworks
1,2,3 a dead heat between
A. Need help, Jesus saves call 800 xxx-oooo
B. Anti Choice, all embryos are pure life (maybe eggs too) so women don't fuck with em
C. Trump
And of all the various signage I saw it was Trump who didn't just have signs but also shrines. As my son noted as we went by two large containers parked in the middle of a field of corn and windmills (yes a GOPer who loves his federal government subsidizes), "wow dad that just isn't two containers that they installed on man made berm, but they also installed 30 foot polls and then ran electricity to a lighting system to light the shrine up all night long."
To be clear most of the Trump signage we saw wasn't old election stuff---not Trump- Pence 2020 or even Trump 2024 although there was some of that. This was just Trump. Not for a particular election. Not with a running mate. This was just pure Trump adulation.
Which got me wondering (once again) WHY? What is it that some Americans find so appealing about a twice divorced, adultering, trustafarian, who has declared bankruptcy 3 times, and trusts Putin more than his own intelligence services and can't abide by democracy and seemingly couldn't find the truth if he was locked in a closet with it- although he would surely grope it.
I mean would you want Trump as a business partner? Would you trust him to house-dog sit? Yet there is a cult like following of this horribly flawed individual. His followers flock to his sermons to hear him preach the gospel of windmills causing cancer, bleach curing COVID, masks signaling weakness, and how his followers are helping America win against all that is evil and trying to destroy it.
I honestly can't claim any insight as to Why, nor even What to do about Trump. I will say that somehow he has gone from failed real estate exec and burned out TV host to having a religious like following. He doesn't look like he is going away any time soon, and maybe more worryingly it doesn't seem like his followers passion is losing any of its intensity.
So yea I guess if the words of Jesus aren't helping you find peace, and controlling women's bodies ain't getting you to your happy place, and you need a place to vent your anger Trump is waiting for you with open hands as long as you remember to show up with an open wallet.
yea its been too long. No excuses.
A friend of mine just bought a house (around $1.2k a square foot in snowmass in need of work). And after putting on a new roof they were thinking about getting the 3.7k square foot interior painted. The first painter they spoke to quoted them $170k to paint the interior of the house (including wood beam ceilings but not 'extras' like the lighting fixtures etc).
WOW. WTF. Holy shit and ummmmmmm I will do it for $100k.
Let's take a minute to unpack that price. First off the 'right' price in most of this country in probably around $10k. Figure Aspen pricing is 1.2x the right national price which puts you at 25k. I spoke to a couple of friends in the business up here and they suggested given how busy construction is now maybe the 'right' Aspen price is $40k. Which is 4x the 'right' national price but ummmmmm ok.
Where did $170k come from? My best guess is the painter is slammed but for 4x the 'right Aspen' price he will either pull painters off other jobs, add overtime, fly to the border and try to hire some immigrants for like $500 an hour and still make $50k for himself for oversight. Or maybe he just felt like saying FU to some nice middle class locals. Either way my friends did not accept his proposal.
But at a deeper level this issue highlights a huge problem that is playing out hugely in Aspen. Namely, you can't find decent help these days and for sure not at a decent price. In our last home our oven broke. It took almost 4 months to get it repaired, and cost an arm and a leg.
My guess is if you bought land in the upper roaring fork valley today you might be looking at a move in date out about 3 years. Why? Well for starters the permitting process is backed up (assuming you can find an architect with bandwidth and experience in the area). Why? Can't find enough people to work in the permitting office to meet the demand in a reasonable time frame. Then getting a builder and decent subs---they are booked out years right now. Why? Can't find experienced and reliable construction workers.
In another example our school just lost our flight instructor. Why? She is going to fly private jets. Why? Well it's all about the Benjamins. If you can make 4x-8x your school teachers salary and where you live is wicked expensive what would you do? How is the school going to hire and retain decent talent when teacher compensation is in line with the national average but home costs are 4x the national average? Not sure how the school district is going to square that circle.
And the restaurant scene. I can't really speak to that nor can most of my friends because ----because well locals mostly don't eat out anymore. We can't afford it, nor do we feel we are getting our money's worth. A recent poll in the Aspen Times found about 70% of the locals thoughts the restaurant scene was bad our poor while 10% thought it was great. When you pay a lot for food you expect to get a lot and honestly restaurants are also having a hiring problem. When you got only fair staff in the kitchen, poor staff on the floor and mediocre ingredients how do you feel when the check comes to $100 a person with no booze? Answer----pissed.
Some of my friends who work directly in service roles for the rich and famous are finding the ultra wealthy increasingly frustrated as well. They expect more and right now they are having trouble getting it. I guess if you want your house painted this summer your might have to drop $250k and accept a shit job done slowly. No one likes that but the rich really, really don't. The billionaire plus crowd is starting to fly in additional staff, the poorier ultra wealthy who are having to rely on local people are mostly walking around Clark's market in a drunken haze complaining.
Bottom line Aspen is breaking. Not only can you not get the service you want when you want it you can't get the service you need when you need it at almost any price. Locals are angry. Visitors are angry. Pretty much everyone in this lovely little bit of nature's paradise is pissed off. And there are no solutions in sight. I asked my wife if we won the lotto would we want to stay in Aspen and neither of us could say for sure YES.
Ok this is too long---more later.
