did aspen just jump the shark?

 yea its been too long.  No excuses.

A friend of mine just bought a house (around $1.2k a square foot in snowmass in need of work).  And after putting on a new roof they were thinking about getting the 3.7k square foot interior painted.  The first painter they spoke to quoted them $170k to paint the interior of the house (including wood beam ceilings but not 'extras' like the lighting fixtures etc).

WOW.  WTF.  Holy shit and ummmmmmm I will do it for $100k.

Let's take a minute to unpack that price.  First off the 'right' price in most of this country in probably around $10k.  Figure Aspen pricing is 1.2x the right national price which puts you at 25k.  I spoke to a couple of friends in the business up here and they suggested given how busy construction is now maybe the 'right' Aspen price is $40k.  Which is 4x the 'right' national price but ummmmmm ok.  

Where did $170k come from?  My best guess is the painter is slammed but for 4x the 'right Aspen' price he will either pull painters off other jobs, add overtime, fly to the border and try to hire some immigrants for like $500 an hour and still make $50k for himself for oversight.  Or maybe he just felt like saying FU to some nice middle class locals.  Either way my friends did not accept his proposal.

But at a deeper level this issue highlights a huge problem that is playing out hugely in Aspen.  Namely, you can't find decent help these days and for sure not at a decent price.  In our last home our oven broke.  It took almost 4 months to get it repaired, and cost an arm and a leg.  

My guess is if you bought land in the upper roaring fork valley today you might be looking at a move in date out about 3 years.  Why?  Well for starters the permitting process is backed up (assuming you can find an architect with bandwidth and experience in the area).  Why?  Can't find enough people to work in the permitting office to meet the demand in a reasonable time frame.  Then getting a builder and decent subs---they are booked out years right now.  Why?  Can't find experienced and reliable construction workers.  

In another example our school just lost our flight instructor.  Why?  She is going to fly private jets.  Why?  Well it's all about the Benjamins.  If you can make 4x-8x your school teachers salary and where you live is wicked expensive what would you do?  How is the school going to hire and retain decent talent when teacher compensation is in line with the national average but home costs are 4x the national average?  Not sure how the school district is going to square that circle.

And the restaurant scene.  I can't really speak to that nor can most of my friends because ----because well locals mostly don't eat out anymore.  We can't afford it, nor do we feel we are getting our money's worth.  A recent poll in the Aspen Times found about 70% of the locals thoughts the restaurant scene was bad our poor while 10% thought it was great.  When you pay a lot for food you expect to get a lot and honestly restaurants are also having a hiring problem.  When you got only fair staff in the kitchen, poor staff on the floor and mediocre ingredients how do you feel when the check comes to $100 a person with no booze?  Answer----pissed.

Some of my friends who work directly in service roles for the rich and famous are finding the ultra wealthy increasingly frustrated as well.  They expect more and right now they are having trouble getting it.  I guess if you want your house painted this summer your might have to drop $250k and accept a shit job done slowly.  No one likes that but the rich really, really don't.  The billionaire plus crowd is starting to fly in additional staff, the poorier ultra wealthy who are having to rely on local people are mostly walking around Clark's market in a drunken haze complaining.  

Bottom line Aspen is breaking.  Not only can you not get the service you want when you want it you can't get the service you need when you need it at almost any price.  Locals are angry.  Visitors are angry.  Pretty much everyone in this lovely little bit of nature's paradise is pissed off.  And there are no solutions in sight.  I asked my wife if we won the lotto would we want to stay in Aspen and neither of us could say for sure YES.  

Ok this is too long---more later.