Tuesday, December 16, 2025

why I dislike Trump in $$$s

 The election of DJT has been very expensive for me and my wife.  How expensive?


increase health care costs                                    $26k

loss of solar tax credit                                             $30k

loss of business sales to Canada and Europe          $50k

on the plus side

extension of tax cuts                                                 $15k


total                                                                        -$91k

So the president who folks claim is good for business owners sure isn't good for this business owner.  Increasing tariffs by about 30% on my sales into Europe and Canada has.....hurt sales.  While Canada is not a main market for us, its not nothing.  

Health care is something I think many of the talking heads don't understand in a direct way, and for sure our elected leaders have no clue.  If you are employed by a large business you might find health insurance for a couple aged 50-64 costs you about $12k a year in premiums and has a 5k per person deductible.  You don't realize your employer is probably paying $10-15k a year for that plan nor the advantage of being in a more healthy insurance pool helping to keep costs down.  In 2026 thanks to Trump's BBB legislation if you are in the individual market place (and yes the preexisting condition is baaaack) you are looking at $22k in premiums for a husband and wife and an individual $13k deductible (ie before our insurance company pays a penny we pay $48k).  Unless you have a net worth of over $1m its just not worth paying that kind of money---better off to hope to be healthy and risk bankruptcy than pay that level of insurance to protect your assets.  Is it good for our country to have large numbers of people risking bankruptcy?  Probably not, but don't tell Donald that. He loves bankruptcy.  But lets be really clear, when someone doesn't pay the hospital those debts get socialized to the rest of us---which will drive up our costs.  The GOP's BBB will create a negative reinforcing spiral of rising health costs for all.

We are in the process of building an all electric house (our neighborhood isn't serviced by a gas utility).  We are using heat pumps and all kinds of highly efficient appliances along with lots of insulation and excellent windows.  Still the ROI (return on investment) of our solar system is ....4% A 4% ROI when money market rates are 3.5% is really bad.  Most investors would look for an ROI of 8-12%.   With the tax credits our ROI would be 7.8%.  Still a touch low, but in the right neighborhood.  4% is horrible, and only makes sense if you think the cost of energy is going to skyrocket---which I suspect it will.  So we are going to pay up for a solar system and if energy costs stay low hope that powers the US economy and if energy costs explode then our investment is wise.  Still discouraging people from adding energy production to the US seems profoundly stupid.

On the plus side extending the tax breaks is saving me $15k a year, while adding an estimated $2 trillion (CBO scoring) to the deficit over the next decade.  No surprise that our CEO in chief's various businesses have declared bankruptcy 6 times.



Monday, December 15, 2025

to my GOP friends a question from the way back machine

I have many friends who used to and many who continue to describe themselves as Republicans,  For you I have a quick thought experiment.  If I had asked you 11 years ago if you would vote for or support the following positions from the president


1.  ending the independence of the FED (in my money and banking class in 1988 this was sacrosanct and unquestioned, now not so much)---while at it fire the head of the BLS because they don't like the unemployment numbers

2.  being pro random universal tariffs to reward and punish individual countries and companies

3.  the government taking ownership stakes in companies and profit sharing

4.  a budget that added 3.4 trillion to the national deficit with dynamic scoring (and only 3 trillion without dynamic scoring---ie the president and his party managed to create a budget that cuts taxes and hurts growth--something I have never seen in half a century)

5.  a president who would put his image on our currency

6.  a president who would ignore the emoluments clause and watch his net worth grow by $3 billion in his first 10 months in office--including trading weapons and AI chips for businesses deals with his companies with Islamic state supporting countries

7. a president who would go to war with Venezuela for ...well its not clear either their oil reserves or because he doesn't like Maduro and blow up ships in the Caribbean because he says they have drugs on board

8.  a president who would increase the DHS budget (department of homeland security ) to over 100 billion per year.  Only the US, China and Russia have a defense budget larger than the US DHS budget--the DHS budget is now more than double the Israel defense budget

9.  would suspend habeas corpus.  Have masked unidentified agents arrest and deport people without due process

10.  would call out the national guard and the active military over the wishes of mayors and governors to attack peaceful protestors who disagreed with the suspension of habeas corpus

11.  would demand comedians lose their job, use the power of the federal government (FCC and FTC) to control the media

12.  would side with Russia in a hot war Russia started in Europe over Europeans

13.  would weaken NATO by questioning article 5

14.  would put an anti-vax tin foil hat leader as head of HHS and watch measles rates in the US hit the highest in 20 years 

15.  would demand/ expect tribute from companies (FIFA peace prize, Apple gold thing etc)


ok I am going to stop, but this list could go on and on and on.  Would a Reagan, Bush 1 or 2, Ford, Nixon Romney Republican vote for this?  NO.  No no.   GOP frogs please jump out of the boiling water and realize the current party leader is not someone you would have ever considered voting for a decade ago.