I'm moving us to tangerine or WTF

 COVID numbers continue to trend up but its snowing --hoping for a foot in the next 24 hours.

But that ain't the news---the news is we got vandalism to our gas service and 3,500 homes are without gas.  This whole process started on Saturday with about 50 houses but as it became clear that the cause was vandalism Black Hills Energy acted out of an an abundance of caution and shut gas to pretty much all of Aspen.  Those homes will be without gas for 12-36 hours to limit the chance of them exploding, and instead will run the risk of pissed off home owners, renters and lots and lots of burst pipes as temps drop in peoples houses.

Vandalism in Aspen to our gas lines---shouldn't that move us up the color wheel of danger?

How about the Sundeck at the top of Aspen mountain---25% of the staff tested positive but not to worry they are staying open with no change to their policies because......well they are quite proud that they were able to get so many tests done and 'box in' COVID.  humm yea right.  Is that acting out of an abundance of caution or an abundance of exhaustion?  More to the point the optics of 100 more people testing positive over the next week is just par for the course, but if a house blows up due to gas pipeline that is front page news (and a major lawsuit).

So I vote that the county moves to Tangerine---a color not on the wheel of COVID but a lovely color non-the-less.  

I would propose the following rules for Tangerine, no one outside of the roaring fork valley can ski here or visit.  All restaurants are closed.  All businesses are subsidized by a massive increase in real estate taxes (TABOR be dammed raise real estate taxes from 1-2k per million in home valuation to 15k per million in home valuation over $5 million).  For example, if your home is valued at $10million you would pay 5k on the first $5million and $75k on the second $5million for a total of $80k.  The emergency COVID tax expires after 1 year.

FYI Aspen real estate is off the hook.  $3-4k per square foot in cost is not unusual, nor does it get you anything special.  With unemployment in Pitkin County at over 10%, lines at the food bank stretching across town maybe its time to normalize real estate taxes for a year to transfer wealth from those who got it to those who need it.  Then the town could protect lives and support livelihood as well.  And maybe, just maybe our kids could go back to in person school.  It might also reduce the increasing agro intensity in town---could that perchance limit infrastructure vandalism as well?

Tangerine---the tax the rich color (for just one year).

My daughter also suggested the following locals only tee-shirt and marketing message

ITS MY MOUNTAIN, your just skiing it

not bad if I say so

moved to RED

 wow in the fast moving world of COVID we lasted at orange plus plus less than 24 hours before moving to red.

What does this mean---restaurants are shut ---what else it means (do they close the mountain) is probably the subject of a heated discussion but right now the lifts are still spinning at the moment(noon Tuesday).  

Seems Dean Wormer realized he could just toss Delta house off campus and could skip the whole double secret probation thing--that said if you are hear from out of town just remember lie lie lie---there are no consequences besides more COVID.

more funny numbers (or what could go wrong?)

 1.  our hotels are at 90% capacity but our restaurants (under our made up orange plus level) are limited to 50% capacity---how will out of town guests feed themselves?---our local business chamber has suggested the answer is increase restaurant capacity--what could go wrong?

2.  my friends who work as caterers are overbooked.  Guess that is how many visitors are dealing with the restaurant capacity limits.

3.  one of my daughters hockey teams is scheduled to play in phoenix AZ the first weekend in January.  Of the 19 players on her team she is the only player choosing to listen to the CDC guidelines recommending against travel.  This trip will involve at least 3 nights in a hotel and 4 games.  At a recent practice my daughter over heard a couple of her teammates talking saying ' I really like AZ at least there we won't have to wear masks when we play, and restaurants don't have the same kind of stupid limits we have in CO'.  As a reminder the last time this team traveled to games out of state players, coaches and parents all tested positive in the following week.  To reiterate she is the only player on her team choosing not to travel out of state to play teams from 3 different states.  What could go wrong?  And I am sure that when the CDC and pretty much every medical authority recommended against travel and gatherings they of course understood the important of U14AA girls hockey and wouldn't want to restrict that.

NEWS FLASH THIS JUST IN ---PITKIN COUNTY MOVES TO ORANGE PLUS PLUS

orange what?????????? about a month ago Pitkin county invented a new level of restrictions on the states color wheel ----even though some of our numbers at the time indicated we should move to red and shelter in place the town didn't want to shut restaurants and maybe the mountain out of concern for the economy so they invented a level between orange and red---orange plus.  Since then in a surprise to no one our numbers have gotten much worse.  How much worse---our 14 day average incidence rate is about 4x the level that would put us into red---our 5 day average incidence rate is about 8x the level to put us into red, so yesterday Pitkin County created another new level of restrictions on the wheel---orange plus plus because orange plus was such a success.  For us grumpy old men brings back memories of double secret probation.

double secret probation

Yes try to find a way to laugh otherwise you will cry and want to beat people over the head with a bat (and maybe re-watch animal house a classic anti-war --- times they are a changing movie).

So what does double secret probation ---I mean orange plus plus mean to you travelers thinking about a trip to Aspen.  LIE.

When you check into wherever you are staying if they bother to ask if you got a COVID test say yes--no one will check.  When you go out to dinner and they ask if everyone you are eating with is in your immediate family say yes.  If a liftie asks you to put a mask on or pull it up pretend like you don't speak English (this is a ton of fun--feel free to make up your own language).  If ya wanna party have a party in your house---house parties are excellent and I can recommend a DJ (he was working the snow polo event last weekend and there are plenty of caterers happy to help with the event and if you get caught well the worst that will happen is you get put on double secret probation).  And if you get sore after a couple of days of skiing not to worry--you can always go to Bikram yoga assuming the wait list isn't filled.

yoga schedule

What could go wrong?

math set (no calculus required but they do get harder)

 Don't worry I think you will all pass this set of math problems:

1.  Town of Snowmass village tourism board signs up for ski singles week (dec 13-19) + COVID=???

2.  On the lift a fellow local mentioned that his friend who runs a catering business offered him $100 an hour to work a New Year's Party for 100 locals he did the math as follows

$100 an hour x 7 hours plus $300 tip= $1,000

If someone at the party subsequently tests positive and gets contact traced to party he will miss 10 days of work, and he makes $240 a day and he figures the odds of someone being positive at the party are 95%.

Does he work the party?

3.  How good are our hotel COVID measures?

At the St. Regis over 20 interns tested positive for COVID--there are 60 interns.  If in any given week approximately 1% of the local Pitkin residents test positive for COVID is the rate among St. Regis interns higher or lower than the rate in Pitkin at large.  How much higher?  Does that indicate the St. Regis has a good program to keep people safe or a failing one?

st regis interns

4.  I am cheap so I don't buy my son new ski boots.  Mostly he just crams his feet into them.  He has skied  22 days so far this season.  What happens when you add skiing every day to 3 year old ski boots and a teenager?  See video for answer.

5.  A number of local restaurants have complained about the Aspen 'cancel culture' and are fighting back by requiring a deposit of $95 per person when you make a reservation.  That deposit is then applied against your bill and becomes a minimum per person cost to eat at said restaurant.  

that reservation is gonna cost you

this question has multiple parts

    

        a.  If you are a party of 6 and someone starts to feel sick the day of your reservation and cancelling requires 72 hour notice do you cancel your reservation out of an abundance of caution regarding COVID or just ask the sick person to stay home and drink an extra $95 worth?

        b.  When myself and MRS Aspen Green Acres used to live in NYC 25 years ago we would often dine at a small local Italian trattoria.  We would split a salad ($8) each get a plate of pasta ($10x2) and a bottle of wine ($15).  

            1.  How much did dinner cost Mr and Mrs green acres 25 years ago?

            2.  How much would that dinner cost today at Acquolina with a minimum spend of $95 per head?

            3.  Assuming 7% tax and 20% tip in 1995 and 10% tax and 25% tip today at Acquolina what is 

                rate of inflation?  If the US Commerce Department says inflation is running at 2% per year how much higher is the inflation rate of dinner at an Italian restaurant per year and over 25 years?

            4.  If you bring two children with you and each adult eats $55 in food and each child eats $30 in                     food and a bottle of wine is $60 how many bottles of wine must you drink to consume your deposit?  Remember that you can't buy half a bottle of wine?  

                        i.  Can you legally drive home after dinner?  

                        ii. Can mom and dad stand up or cross and icy road?

                        iii.  How many bottles of wine must your drink if you have 3 kids and two adults?

How did you do?  

FUCK everyone

 ohhhhhhh k

my wife was planning on taking my keyboard away because I am obviously way too agro, but I managed to sneak off one more post------

But because she is usually right I am going to tone it down (yes this is the toned down version)

1.  my son has 15 ski days---go boy go

2.  The St. Regis in Aspen had more than 20 interns test positive for COVID ---which one of you visitors is staying at the St. Regis or any local hotel with their excellent mitigation measures this X-mas or New Years?

COVID interns

3.  I love the guy who posted a comment in the Aspen Times regarding the new Pitkin County Policy that visitors must have a negative COVID test 3 days prior to arrival and as a result he and his family would go to Jackson Hole not Aspen even though he loves Aspen because of the cost of getting the COVID tests.  Humm lets unpack this little gem---you won't come to Aspen on a family ski trip because of the cost of getting a COVID test.  Really!!!!  In much of this country testing is free, or covered by insurance but even if it costs each family member $200 that is the cost of what a couple of lunches on the mountain or 1 day's lift ticket and a beer.  Oh yea and while you say you like Aspen you insist you aren't a local, BUT you are posting in the local paper.  Yea right.

4.  Places my kids friends went over Thanksgiving include but are not limited to, NYC, Switzerland, France, Maui, Mexico, LA, Denver, and.....well you get the point.

5.  Today 20 more people tested positive---we are beyond the red line on the color wheel for positive cases but we stay well below that because also in the algo to calculate our color is how much of our local hospital capacity is being used and that is minimal---I think we have 70% of beds open (or 7 beds depending on how you look at it).  But if-when AVH is at capacity you can assume every other bed in the state is taken because what you don't want to have is bad COVID at AVH----we have many, many orthopedic surgeons who are excellent but not a single respiratory therapist, or anyone who specializes in any of the treatment you would need if you get bad COVID.  Odds are if you check into AVH with COVID you get an ACL repair, and maybe a torn rotor cuff cleaned up.  When my wife was sick they ran a respiratory panel and .....promptly lost the results.

6.  Speaking of sick wife, she got sick at the start of NOV.  We (her doc as well) thought it might be COVID so she was tested.  Negative.  Tested again 5 days later.  Negative.  I was tested,  Negative.  She never had a fever, never lost her sense of smell but slept for 17 days and had an oxygen level in the low 80s until she was put on supplemental oxygen.  But it could have been other respiratory disease but with the lost respiratory panel that became hard to determine.  So imagine our surprise when our health insurance called to ask about how she was doing with COVID and that she was officially considered COVID positive by health insurance.  IE a PREEXISTING CONDITION.  Yup, she now has an additional preexisting condition for something that she may or may not have had.  GOPers out there just remember the affordable care act was passed 11 years ago and while you have promised to replace it with something better that included coverage for the aforementioned preexisting conditions you have not actually presented anything.  Zero, zip, nada.  Nice effort Republican party.

7.  My daughter's hockey team is going to Phoenix jan 8-10 to play hockey.  Take a guess  is my daughter going?  Will we listen to the CDC or fly on a plane and stay in a hotel and be around many other kids whose parents may or may not be eating at restaurants.  Hey my dad knows the answer.

8.  My son is gonna take a pass on orange bowl in Miami this winter---in a surprise to no one least of all my dad----more days to ski towards that goal of 100 assuming Ski Co doesn't put a reservation system in place so the guy who is complaining about paying for COVID tests can come ski forcing locals to sit X-mas and New Years out.

9.  My daughter informed me about an orgy that occurred in the 10th grade and again in a surprise to no one masks were not worn.

10.  A social media post by an 8th grader includes this gem----her favorite sport is .........'giving blow jobs'----dear lord we can't return to 'normal' soon enough.

Act out of an abundance of caution not an abundance of exhaustion

My dad died of Parkinson's on Thanksgiving Day.

Neither I nor my sister traveled to St. Louis to be at his deathbed nor his funeral service and burial 3 days later.

Why?  We chose to act out of an abundance of caution, choosing to follow the CDC guidelines against travel.  We chose not to risk exposing our 80 something year old step-mom and his caregivers to more potential COVID vectors.  I chose not to expose my wife and kids to additional COVID risks and not to bring those risks back to our community.  I chose not to try to figure out how to go to a cemetery, house of worship, and my father's home and not give or accept a hug because I didn't think I could do it.

The decision to go to St. Louis to see my father for one last moment, to hold his hand on his deathbed, to help bury him was left to us.  It was lovely that there was no pressure put on us one way or another.  It gave me room to think---what would my dad do?  My dad the internist who made house calls until he retired.  My dad who specialized in infectious diseases.  My dad who did not support the Vietnam War, but when drafted served with honor, was in country when I was born, picked up a handful of medals, and when discharged, spoke out about his experiences.  My dad's moral compass pointed true North.  Always.

There are times I wondered why my father didn't find a fellow doctor to discover he had bone spurs, or flat feet or some other ailment that would have disqualified him from service, or at a minimum used his Harvard, Johns Hopkins connections to keep him stateside.  Likewise, there were times I was frustrated that he didn't make a call or two to help me see a particular doctor more quickly.  But to wonder about those things is to forget the unwavering nature of his moral compass.

If my father had been able to speak in those last days and I had asked him what he wanted me to do his answer would have been predictable.  First, he would assume his doctor voice, and then he would say "you should follow the CDC recommendations, you should not put your family's health at risk, you should think about our country's lives and livelihood and stay home.  And you should have one heck of a memorial service for me in a year."

So, What did you do for Thanksgiving?  What are you going to do for Christmas and New Year's?  What sacrifices are you willing to make every day for our country's lives and livelihood?  Does your compass waver?  My dad's didn't.

  

bright side part III

 I have been told a popular short written question for the SAT is --what did you do during COVID?

My son is aiming for straight As and 100 days (skiing)

this is gonna require a lot to go right---first he has to manage to get straight As with a course load that includes 4 IB HL classes and a school whose grade range gives an A- for a 93.99%.  So the straight As is a pretty aggressive goal (and one that his parents could care less about).

What else has to go right to make this happen?

The boy is hoping COVID threads a very fine needle in Aspen---he needs school to stay remote, while the lifts keep spinning.  That is a pretty narrow window.  He also needs Ski Co not to implement a reservation system, or at least find himself limited by a Ski Co reservation system.  Odds of that happening are very very slim.

It would also be easier for him to hit this goal if he doesn't do any winter sailing.  One of the big national races is in February and he would love to do it (and would like that chance to show college coaches his skills in a national regatta) but losing a week of skiing to sailing will make those 100 days tuff.

And of course if he is forced to quarantine for 14 days (potentially more than once) that would also make reaching 100 day even harder.

Will he manage to keep his grades up while bolting for the slopes every lunch (and maybe doing wilderness guide class from the mountain on his phone)?  Will a college be impressed with getting in turns will getting decent grades?  Will COVID, the school, and Ski Co even make it possible?

WHO CARES.  It's an awesome goal.  Even better, regardless what happens getting out for a quick ski mid day is great for his mind and body and makes for more pleasant interactions with a 17 year old boy.

Progress so far?  7 days and 7 As (and one A- the always frustrating 93).  

How many days you got?

always look on the bring side part duex

 don't need any winter budget for sunscreen.  Between helmet, goggles, and buff there is no exposed skin.  Course we all know those buffs aren't great COVID stoppers, but it is what it is. 

Also I have no clue who anyone is---nor does anyone know who I am.  Maybe an additional COVID bonus.

always look on the bright side (well at least for a day)

my kids don't really like skiing.  BUT during COVID things change.  We are one of those households who are listening to CDC guidelines about travel, and interaction and are pretty much holed up in our basement with a can of beans.

BUT I will let my kids out of the house to ski (and yes chair lifts don't seem like a great idea, but they are pretty much riding alone or with a small pod of friends with their masks on outside).

All of a sudden my kids want to ski.  My son has skied every day the mountain has been open, my daughter less but she is starting to warm to it.

It seems if the only way to have human interaction is outside, with skis on they will ski.

And guess what?  My son all of a sudden is sleeping better, acting better and maybe even having more energy in afternoon classes.  Who would have thought that just 35 min of skiing outside with a friend would be enough to flip an attitude?  (well as every parent out there knows we all did, but getting our kids to buy in was just about impossible---that said if the options are continue to face a screen or go skiing even the biggest hater of skiing starts to see the appeal)

guest blogger (its deep and worth reading for thanksgiving)

A Thanksgiving Reflection (by the WIFE)

We have a new rule in our house.  I can't start the day discussing politics or the pandemic.  I can't begin with strife if I am to view the rising of the sun like the rising of hope.  What seems most clear to me right now is that we, the people living our lives right now, are not special.  It is not our fate to live without suffering,  Whether its slaves under Pharaoh, Africans chained in boats, Jews in WWII, Londoners during the Blitz, or Tutsis and Hutus in Rwanda, unimaginable suffering has happened through the ages,  We are no better or more special in some way that absolves us of the possibility of deep tragedy and suffering, There is nothing new going on here,  If you are somehow lucky enough to be rich/connected/ powerful in such a way that you are sheltered from the storm, that isn't new either.  People paid others to take their place in the Civil War, people used connections to avoid Vietnam.  My father in law, a great man who is on his deathbed, stepped up and did his duty in Vietnam as a doctor.  His job was to triage, to quickly assess who could be saved and who had to be left to die.  Nurses and doctors in ICUs across the country are being asked to do the same right now.  This is a terrible and terrifying and sad but it is not new.  

Fear, anger, and divisiveness are tightly connected, and amplified by the kind of circumstances in which we find ourselves.  But I think instead of screaming at each other, we need to find our humanity and help each other.  Like we teach our children at school, we need to ask ourselves; am I a stand-up person or a stand-by person?  We need to answer hate and fear with empathy and compassion if this is ever going to end.

We need to try to accept the un-acceptable.  Businesses won't make it.  People will die.  Here in Pitkin County, we have created our own color--Orange Plus.  Orange Plus is probably not going to get it done.  It's a Hail Mary, a grasping effort to halt the inevitable.  Or, maybe, it will be just enough. Who am I to judge?

I do not believe in a cruel God, but I know there were people consigned to life in a wheelchair a week before the polio vaccine became available.  There was a last man to die as Armistice was declared.  Now, there will be businesses and people irrevocably damaged right before we get a solution to our current problem.  Orange Plus is a last gasp effort to fight what might be inevitable, and sometimes we just can't face that.  It's too much.

I personally don't think we have that kind of power.  Our collective belief in our ability to manipulate the swirling water of life in our chosen direction is overstated.  What am I being called to do?  What is the next right step for me to take?  Those question, and the ability to reach out a helping hand are things I can control.  Outcomes?  Not so much. My fervent hope for this Thanksgiving is that we an all find ways to help and support each other, with sure knowledge that we are all trying to be our best selves.

Tomorrow I will return to regular programing of bitter sarcasm.

my son's favorite word, and a modest proposal for Aspen school district

 my 17 year old son's favorite word is...............

LATER

yup that pretty much sums up life with a 17 year old boy:

walk dogs?      later

do dishes!!      later

do your laundry!!!!  later

college prep            much later

find a partner for sailing        later, maybe, I don't know, I don't want to look needy

and yet it mostly gets done.  not on my time frame.  not how I like.   But he is getting As, speaking at the school board meeting, keeping his room clean and sending emails to college coaches.  Is it getting done how I want, when I want?  No, but it is getting done.

Speaking of the Aspen School District.

A modest proposal to school during a pandemic:

 

ASD’s goal should be to provide the best education possible while ensuring the safety of our community.  To that end I would suggest k-7 go full time in person unless community spread becomes so great as to move the district to full online.  

 

8-12 would go full online with the online delivery platform that was designed over the summer, implemented at the start of the school year, and was working well for many students.  K-7 would then be able to use the additional space vacated by 8-12 to provide appropriate social distancing.

 

For the exceptions, the students in the 8-12 group who aren’t successful with online school without adult oversight could go to school, where they will be in the gyms with a proctor overseeing them as they work online.  This model has already proven successful with the special education kids.

 

ASD full in person schooling can resume once the population is vaccinated and/or COVID rates have dropped to New Zealand levels.

 

Why?  Teaching students online and remote at the same time is a much worse educational delivery mechanism than full remote.  Asking students to do four 85-minute class periods online, with 30 minutes for lunch is mind numbing. Try it. Believing that kids in masks sitting six feet apart from each other is going to solve the social emotional situation is wishful thinking. Thinking that AHS students aren’t already out and about with each other is ludicrous. And acting as if there will be no damage if we send @1,000 people to campus when Covid is on the rise is delusional. 

 

We all want the best safe education for our community possible.  ASD developed a strong online teaching platform over the summer, let’s leverage it.

I like the idea of you, and then you talk

 my daughter said that to me when I suggested.........well anything.

Its also kinda like that with everything.

1.  I like the idea of in person school, and then I realize its going to be a hybrid model with the students go in person every 4 days with 85 min classes and teachers teaching online and in person at the same time.

2.  I like the idea of opening the ski mountain, but not the town closing due to COVID

3.  I like the idea of not wearing masks, but hate community spread of COVID

4.  I like the idea of a free ski pass, but hate spending 3 hours getting the hard sell on a time share

5.  I like the idea of dogs, but hate the hair and their needy walks

ETC ya get the point.  My mom used to work for a guy named Barry Commoner---he was noted for saying 'there is no such thing as a free lunch'.  And he is right.  I love the idea of tax cuts and higher pay for teachers and a big infrastructure spend, but guess what.......

And to my daughter I say, do what you know you are supposed to and maybe what comes out of my mouth will be praise and not nagging.

And yea I nag too much and its not working---next up threats :) 

Aspen School District shits the bed with new 'hybrid' model

OMG what a beautiful example of trying to find something for everyone and instead creating something that won't work for anyone (or at least the majority of students).

Our high school plan is as follows:

1.  Divid the school into two groups--group A goes to school in person for the first week and group B goes the second week.  If kids in group A don't feel comfortable going in person they can go remote full time (but MUST decide before the week starts and stay committed to in person --why who knows).  Repeat.  

2.  Teachers will teach in person and remote cohorts synchronously (at the same time).

3.  Students will have 4- 85 minute classes a day (with 5 minute passing periods) and a 45 minute lunch--except most teachers are running over (yes running over with an 85 minute class--didn't see that coming)

4.  Some teachers will choose to teach remotely themselves.  What does that look like?  English class being taught in the gym with 8 kids in person in the gym looking at their computers while10 remote students are on their screens  and the  teacher teachers from their home on a computer.

5.  No school on Wednesday (so they can clean).

6.  Each class is only taught twice a week (so for example English Monday and Thursday, Math Tuesday and Friday).

7.  Kids that are in school will have their movements restricted (yes bowl movements too---if you want to go to the bathroom you have to get permission and if someone else is using the bathroom on your floor well ya better hold it till the end of the day).

OMG.  OMG.  OMG.  85 minute class periods!!!!!!  WTF.  No school on Wednesday.  Class only twice a week (forget reinforcement).  Did I mention that is 6 hours of screen time a day just for school.  Add in 2-5 hours for homework and ---well I would like to ask the pediatricians who all recommended the kids go to school what they think about 9 hours of screen time a day and 85 minute classes (and no opportunity to take a crap).

And ya don't need a PHD in education to know that trying to teach to students in person and online at the same time is nigh impossible.

Full remote was working---people just didn't like it.  This solution is a heaping pile of crap that our kids are being tossed into---our school administrators should be ashamed.

ARGGGGGGG.   

COVID pricing--it stinks

Aspen real estate up about 20% (along with rentals)

Take out has added a 15% service charge (not delivery mind you but to just pick up the food costs 15%)

Visit to the Doc--can't see them without a COVID test --cost $200 and they won't submit it to insurance

Ski pass--up about 20% and who knows what kind of product you are getting at that higher price point

paper towels and TP up between 200-300%

cost of gas at the pump up, price of oil down

and don't even begin to ask about the cost of higher education (up) product being delivered (way down)

I guess this is a weird rehash of the 80s stagflation

speaking of the 80s I suggest everyone put on a little VH and remember so fun rock and roll--Eddie Van Halen you will be missed

what the heck is up with those pants?

The truth about ski passes

 Ski Co has announced new ski passes.  They are about 20% higher than prior years.  

That is what we know for sure.

Next,  what SkiCo hopes:

1.  SkiCo hopes they can open the mountain and keep it open from November 26th, to April 15.

2.  They will try to limit the number of people on chair lifts and gondolas to groups of people in same vector---resulting in longer lift lines even if there are fewer skiers.

3.  They hope to have restaurants open, but are not sure how they are going to do that in a COVID safe way.

4.  They hope to have bathrooms open, but are not sure how to do that in a COVID safe way.

5.  They hope not to have to implement a reservation system but they might have to to stay COVID safe

6.  They will refund a prorated portion of your ski pass if the mountain closes due to COVID, less 10 days and insurance.  Let me put some numbers on this--assuming a ski season of nov 26-april 15, and the mountain closing for the season on Jan 10 ish due to lots of community spread over x-mas-new years winter break that would mean if you bought a $2,400 primer pass with $170 insurance, you would be refunded about $1,200 of your $2,570 cost of purchasing a pass and insurance.  Lets assume of those first 45 days the mountain is open you ski a day in November (lets say the snow sucks, and 10 days prior to x-mas break and then a reservation system goes in place and you only get 3 days in over 'winter break' and then you get in another 4 days before they shut the mountain ---that is a total of 18 days which cost you $76 bucks a day).  I will let you judge how good a deal that is.

Bottom line--the price of a pass has gone up 20% and pass buyers are being forced to assume all the risks of the quality of the product being provided and the ability to actually use the services the pass provides.  

Harvard Business School professors will tell you raising prices while cutting services and asking your customer to bear the risks is not a business strategy they recommend ---perhaps SkiCo's Covid response will become a case study some day.

holy smokes

 Last week I drove my wife to and from Billings MT for a work meeting (don't ask).

WY has some of the more awesome views in our country, and I was looking forward to enjoying the views and listening to lots of rock and roll.  Nothing like listening to Led Zep Ramble On while driving 90 along a two lane highway enjoying amazing views and praying not to hit wildlife.

And I got the opportunity to get away from my kids.  Wooooooo Hooooooo.

In the 300+ miles I drove in WY guess what I didn't see.  Mountains.  Not a single one.  Visibility was limited to less than a mile and was often a lot less than that.  The air tasted like shit and looked like it too.  Across all of WY and MT.  

Something else I didn't see much of was gas stations.  When you are driving out west and you got less than 150 miles of range left on your car I would advise starting to look for a gas station.  Bizarrely for this midwest-east coast guy there were almost no gas stations along interstate 25.  Weird right?  We got off the highway to get gas at Midwest WY (pop 390) where the gas station was 7 miles off the highway.  If you got an electric car; WY and MT are not for you.

Before we got off the highway we passed a fire in the brush next to the highway.  A single police cruiser was blocking the lane closer to the fire that was licking the highway, but at that point I could still drive north.  After a quick fill up in Midwest (not a mask in sight) the digital billboard by the entrance to I25 indicated the road to the South was closed due to the fire we drove through.  

Bingo.

The upside to wildfires everywhere is when they close the highway behind you and all 8 emergency responders within 150 miles are trying to put the fire out, the speed limit becomes whatever you like.  While I didn't get a picture of my spedo because my knuckles were white and the wife asleep,  I can say I think the top speed of my Tahoe is faster than 113 MPH that Chevy claims (maybe a dry hot tail wind and a downhill section helped).  Their ya have it.  One bonus to the west being on fire.

But aside from that, I am really not seeing any other benefits.  I can't understand why anyone in the western states would vote for anyone who doesn't have an environmental plan.  I didn't exercise or do anything outside in Billings because breathing was dangerous.  WY ranchers are going to watch their cattle burn, or at a minimum starve to death as the prairie burns.  Eventually even the idiots will stop recreating outside as everyone develops asthma.  And what is the point of having a view if you can't see it.  You couldn't have a more in your face reason to say climate change is real, and something needs to be done before the back 40 burns.  

Back home no evidence of a party ( a little disappointed in the boy) but we did find some Jul pods and puff bars.  Nothing like getting a head start on respiratory issues before the entire country is covered in smoke.

PS Billings---I don't see any appeal.  Kinda looked like a love child of Cleveland and Detroit without the lakes.  

Beautiful Billings

The sun ain't supposed to look like that

Who stole the mountains (and trust me my crap phone camera isn't doing the air justice)

tourists go the F home

 

I am sick of ya.  

What is that?  It sure as heck ain't a local family stopping in front of my neighbors (NYC) house to take pictures of a deer.  They were there for about 5 min looking at, filming and taking pictures of a deer.  In my neighborhood there are fewer year around'ers than there are deer.  It's like people going to New York City and stopping traffic to take a picture of a pigeon or a homeless person.

Come on.

Speaking of tourists my Texas friends finally are going home.  I did get a little joy from hearing they wish they had left a week earlier---seems snow and rain and gray skies were not exactly what they were hoping for.  Wonder how the people who have moved here for a year are gonna feel after 2 more months of this (and the real possibility that the lifts don't spin that much this winter).

I also saw a car off the road last night (again Texas plates)---seems driving on a curvy road at night was too much for their driving skills.

Speaking of Texas driving skills,  I got passed going down Owl Creek Rd (on the straight away) by a jeep from Texas.  To be clear, she passed me, and the truck in front of me (ie double pass) while we were going 40 in a 30 mph zone with a double yellow line.  Think she beat us into town by about 20 seconds.

Texas go the fuck home (and vote Biden when you get there---we got CO taken care of). 

what we did this summer (in pictures ......screw you teacher and 1000 word requirement)

 my daughter did this:

if you like numbers that is 11 vertebrae and a 45 degree curve

my wife did this :

that is two total knee replacements done at separate times this summer in Vail

my son did this:

they were the number 2 boat in Newport RI, and he got to assist and post race sail in an M32 (the top picture) and do some coaching on days he wasn't sailing

What did I do?:

that is me driving my wife to and from two knee surgeries and 2 post op appointments, me driving daughter to spine fusion and home (and the trip home was not fun----nope, I have audio of that someplace I might post if you want to feel lucky about your life) me driving my son to Newport RI, me driving a 14 year old taco from Newport RI back to CO, me driving my son back from Newport (ok he picked me up in Hartford CT) stoping in Chicago to see our house for moving stuff out, stopping in STL to see my parents, and then me driving the wife to a and from a business meeting in Billings MT because there are pretty much no flights in and out of Aspen starting in September.  

That is a total of 9,146 miles in just over 3 months, or just over 1/3 the circumference of the Earth.  Who says you don't get to go anywhere during COVID?

Did I mention that we also moved homes from Aspen to Snowmass Village while my son was out of town and my daughter and wife were post op.

I am not sure the Who got it right when they sang about the summer time blues.

what you can learn from dogs----and should I stay or should I go?

first some housekeeping---if you are super duper into the blog and want an email alert put your email in the above box and follow the instructions.

What you can learn from dogs

Dogs should never EVER play poker---their tells are super obvious and easy to read.  If you can't read what they are telling you DO NOT get a dog and have someone check to see if you have a heart beat.

I am really cheap and scared of COVID.  Ergo I have not had my dogs groomed in probably 9 months.  They were really gross.  On Saturday I finally got them cleaned and they look, feel and smell fabulous.  Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday I only walked them on their leashes.  By Wednesday they threatened legal action if they were not allowed to run on a trail off leash.  I acquiesced.   

Boy did they run.  The energy and excitement they brought to the trail was epic.  It was also a good reminder to take some days off.  Sometimes even doing the most fun thing (running on a trail, looking for mud and deer and bones) can lose some of the thrill if you do it every day.  Also my older (ish 8 years) dog gets sore after a 4-8 mile trail run and her performance really benefits from a day or two off.

And what is true for dogs is true for humans too.  Whether its interval hill training and shooting pucks for hockey, or trying to come up with a creative marketing message sometimes some time off is the secret to success.  Dogs, thanks for the reminder.  Now I must hose off their undercarriage.

Should I stay or Should I go?

My super power is seeing risks.  Sadly sometimes that means I just hide in the basement and don't take any which isn't a great strategy.  This little post goes out to Dr. K who is wondering---should I visit Aspen?

1.  Think about what can go wrong.  You are driving---what happens if you can't get here.  What happens if roads close again and it adds 8 hours to your trip.  If that just makes for a better story and you have the mental reserves and patience for the real risk that the commute get tuff then go for it---if any bump in the travel road seems too much to handle then stay home or go someplace closer to home.

2.  Be honest with yourself about the importance of air quality.  Check this great website

purpleair

Look at the average over the past week or so and be clear that yea the air could be really bad.  Do you mind recreating in harmful conditions?  If yes then maybe stay away, if not then come.  One of the nice things about purpleair is it makes clear (er) exactly how bad the air is.  It puts a number on it which might help people make more informed intelligent decisions.

3.  COVID----right now our number look good.  Could they get bad again.  Of course.  COVID is just a wild card, but I would suggest that as people start to return to school across the country we will see USA wide spike---what happens in Pitkin county is less obvious to me.

4.  Fire restrictions and fire.  Pretty much no fires allowed.  If that is a problem don't come, if not come.  Do you have chicken little itus?  If you are worried about being in a valley with limited points of egress some of which are challenging, others of which are already restricted by fire and you won't be able to sleep at night out of fear of a fire starting and trapping you in Aspen and burning you alive DONT COME.  If you got no fear of fire, are happy to leave at any warning of fire danger (and a long exit might be the order of the day) then come.

Bottom line, know the risks you are taking and only take the risks you are comfortable with.

About yesterdays help wanted ad for a MANNY named Tom Brady (but with hockey skills)

When I learned that the ad was real, I took my post down.  I don't mind taking the piss out of a group of people or an idea but going after a specific individual(s) isn't right.  Especially online.  Which is kinda a shame cause that help wanted ad was awesome.  

Top COVID fun so far

 Last Wednesday night my wife, daughter and her bubble buddy went to the 'drive in' at buttermilk to watch Almost Famous.

What a fun evening.  We were lucky enough to be able to borrow a friends most excellent and perfect drive in car---a 1969 Chevy Impala.  

If ever there was a perfect car for the drive in this was it.  We grabbed some candy, drinks and popcorn and lots of blankets, cranked up the girls horrible music on the excellent Alpine stereo system and headed over to butter milk.

Wait let me take a step back---I started the car and my daughter tried to open the door.  The door was locked.  She asked how to unlock the car door.  I said pull up the lock on the door.  After a couple minutes of shouting she figured out the button sticking up out of the door panel was the lock pulled it up and took some steroids and was finally able to open the car door.

We are driving along and the questions start coming----how do these seatbelts work, what are these things in the side of the car (ash trays), how do the windows work (crank) and OMG where are the cup holders (the cup holders were a reoccurring question).  And finally this car is awesome can we buy it.  Please.  Pretty please.  Answer is no you want friends with this car you do NOT want to drive it in snow, rain or have to stop quickly for a deer that doesn't look both ways before crossing the road.

We pull into buttermilk, get front row parking as the car clearly demands, and settled in to watch a great movie.  

A couple of highlights:

1. Turning the engine on every 30 minutes to keep from draining the battery while running the radio to tune into the audio and hearing 350 cubic in of American horsepower.
2. Watching a turbo prop come into land very low and buzz the drive in directly over the screen.
3. Watching the stars come out and blanket the sky while snuggling under a blanket with my wife while my daughter made retching sounds in the back seat and tried to 'keep us separated'.
4. Watching my daughter discover where my line 'don't do drugs (and my addition don't kiss boys') came from
5. Letting my daughter and her bubble buddy know that there STILL were not cup holders in the car (and trying to answer why without disturbing everyone else at the drive in

overall a really awesome COVID safe night.  It also made me realize how long it's been and how much I miss being able to go out and do stuff.

 

and why not to take drugs

like rats fleeing a sinking ship---and Google Maps shits the bed

 Glenwood Canyon is on fire.  At last check the fire was about 20k acres and 0% contained.  

If that sounds bad it is---but wait there is more..........I70 had to close because of the fire.  Gov Polis has indicated that with luck I70 will re-open in 2-3 days.  I suggest he is high on some of CO finest MJ if he actually thinks that is possible.  Not only is the fire raging around 70, but the fire has also burnt a lot of tress and bushes on the canyon wall that keep it stable.  Next up is rocks falling all over I70 like some bad video game.  That will get worse if and when it rains but truth be told I70 is gonna be in bad shape for a long time.

What does that mean for this Aspen local?  Well first off if you want to get to Denver the last couple of days that means an 8 1/2 hour drive not a 3 hour drive because not only was I70 East closed but they also closed independence pass due to massive traffic jams (maybe 15 times normal traffic over pass) and jacked knifed trucks on pass.  However, this is a very fluid situation and independence pass was just re-opened due to ---well an 8 1/2 hour drive to go to Denver.  They are currently metering traffic (letting cars go in bunches one way and then the other way) and keeping 35 foot plus trucks off road.  

Not being able to get trucks into Aspen is a starting to result in food shortages.

And the air quality is horrible---so you shouldn't exercise (the fine particulate matter from the fire in the air will damage your lunges.)  

Before fire

Now (during down valley fire)---yea that ain't LA that is Snowmass Village

With food shortages, periodic massive traffic jams as I70 traffic is re-routed through Aspen S curves, and horrible air making exercise dangerous what to the private jet folks do?

They flee.

Today when I went by the airport there were about 15 jets lined up on the taxiway and another 25 with their doors open and stairs down awaiting the arrival of the rich and famous looking to flee to their next bolt hold.

Don't tell me Aspen is your home just because you pay $15k in property tax on your $10 million home.  Home is like family--you stick with it in good times and bad.  When things get shitty you deal with it.  You stick it out.  You don't get to get away with saying you're a local when you take wing (literally) at the slightest discomfort.  

Did the school enrollment just fall by 100 kids because of fire, soot, shortages and traffic?  I don't know, but I do know that the ultra wealthy aren't sticking around for the hard times.  And honestly why should they?  But don't demand to be treated like this is your home if you don't ever wait around for vail pass to open after taking your kids to hockey in Denver, or make do with what ya got because what you want isn't available at the local store.  

Society is made strong by sharing the pain (just like families).  If you are going to flee at the slightest discomfort that is your right, but don't expect to have the local bond.  As I tell my kids when we drive from Aspen to LA for Thanksgiving--you may hate the car ride but you will remember it.

Speaking of car rides---some NYC friends of ours (one a senior google exec) were coming to the Aspen area by car on Wednesday.  From the East on 70 and then they detoured to US50 and were going to come over independence pass.  But then that closed so google suggested hangerman pass.  If ya think google is smart ---its not (or not always).  In this case virtually everyone that was trying to go East or West on 70 was being directed to go over Hangerman pass by google.  Hangerman pass is an ok road if it is dry and snow free (it is right now ergo the fires) and you are a skilled 4X4 driver with a serious off road truck-car with hopefully 16 in of clearance and real off road tires.

My friends got to the first tough section and were luckily able to pull a U turn and flee.  They then went over cottonwood pass (no piece of cake and soon to be closed by CDOT as well).  

Just because there is a way doesn't mean it should be THE way google maps.  People will get hurt following google's totally unaware advice.  At this stage of development google maps should be better.  And as my google friend exec said "I am going to write an email".  

Meanwhile welcome to the wild west.  Please ignore the private jets stampeding.  

 

COVGE? RAGID (COVID RAGE)

 Some weird COVID stuff in the roaring fork valley:

1.  Private jet flights into Aspen in June 2020 up 6% from June 2019, while commercial flights down 65%.

2.  School enrollment up 8% at Aspen School District (had a funny conversation about where they would put the additional 150 students, I said at home on their couch in their new home or rental like everyone else), that said with cost of COVID hurting schools finances and TABOR really putting the screws to school finances adding a bunch of students will strain an already strained school.  Private jet folks how about some 7 figure gifts to AEF (aspen education foundation).

3.  Real Estate prices are up, up up and rentals are way the fuck up

4.  Soccer in the roaring fork valley covers 3 different counties (Pitkin, Eagle and Garfield)  some counties require players to wear masks, one allows small side games only, one allows regular games no masks (all subject to change at any moment)---and they would normally play games at in other counties as well---crazy, crazy crazy that there isn't a statewide agreement on youth sport (or much else)

5.  Speaking of living in a fantasy world---Hockey is still assuming everything will be 'normal' ---I find that hard to believe

6.  Rumor has it the ice garden won't have ice this year---too expensive --its like 10k a month--how about one of those private jet folks drop 100k to make sure there is ice at the Garden (of course no one might use it with COVID )

7.  My wife had two separate knee replacement surgeries at Steadman in Vail--no COVID test, I am getting my colon inspected in Aspen---fast COVID test---why the discrepancy?  No clue.

8.  Finished moving into my new rental--ski in ski out on snowmass.  But will the lifts spin?  If they do will I be able to ski with friends over x-mas break or will my season pass have black out dates?  Will the only on mountain bathrooms be port-o-poties?  (if so should I sell access to my heated flush toilets to help pay for the rent and if I do does that violate the terms of my lease)?

9.  Do Texans and others realize that if they are in Aspen half a year they owe CO property taxes?

10.  Do you know that property taxes in Aspen are about 1-2k per million in home valuation (yea if you are a private jet owner you are loving the carry cost (taxes) on your Aspen bolt hole).

So yea as the crowds drag on the locals are getting increasingly pissed.  It's not regular tourists that are here its the ultra wealthy.  And while many own homes paying .1% of your homes value in tax isn't much of a burden.  For a local who puts up with lots of costs and expense to enjoy the 6 months the town isn't slammed now looking at the town full all the time the Rage is rising.  

might be time for me to watch 13 days again (excellent movie).

be safe and wear your dam mask.

I wanna know right now

 what the future holds.  

It would be great to get the winning power ball numbers too while I am seeing the future.  

I was on a call with the school today and many (not all but many) wanted to know the future.  

One parent asked for a guarantee that they kids would be back doing in personal learning in December.  Another was frustrated that their kids would need to get an in person physical before doing sports (no telehealth check ups for CO high school sports), because they didn't want their child exposed to COVID (but of course is happy to have them play sports with other kids).

People, people people our school is doing the best they can during a PANDEMIC.  Pandemics are hard, and unpredictable.  Online school is less than ideal, but this fear that our children will fall behind I just don't get.  Fall behind what and whom?  Assuming your kid goes to college it was always possible that they will know less about Calc or philosophy than the student next to them.  But they will be fine, or should be if they got a decent head on their shoulders----exactly what material is covered in high school just isn't that important.

So parents relax.  It will be ok.  And Strass Boss (the school principal) if you can see the future so as to guarantee when classes re-start I would love to be in a power ball pool with you.

Becoming a bitter local?

 True locals seem to harbor a certain disdain for anyone who hasn't lived here for 20 years.  While I don't come close to local status by any standard I am finding myself slightly exasperated with non locals.

First a little background on the unspoken Faustian bargain that exists between locals and everyone else.  Locals have agreed to let non locals (this is everyone from weekend tourists to second home owners) overrun the town for 7 weeks in the summer, 2 weekends during the fall and 3 weeks during ski season.  In return locals expect limited non locals during the rest of ski season and summer and no non locals during shoulder season.  

As we enter the tail end of summer we are still at close to 4th of July capacity.  Trails are slammed (with many people neither wearing masks nor having a clue).  Town is still full of people who don't know about two way stop sign intersections and City Market continues to be the first circle of parking hell.  

Aspen School district has seen its enrollment expand by 8%.  And a number of other families plan to stay in Aspen and both work and do school remotely.

This is all breaking the bargain---locals agree to live in a very remote place and deal with crazy real estate pricing (from stupid high rents, to overpriced retail to pay their rent) in return for 8 months of small town natural heaven.

Instead we are dealing with Belly-Up getting busted for being open at 1am serving 75-100 maskless partiers.  Crowds of tourists who by their very nature are a self-selecting group of COVID risk takers (those who are COVID paranoid are staying home and sanitizing their once a week grocery delivery).  These COVID super spreaders are walking in the middle of streets and overwhelming trails and trail parking.  ARGGGGGGG.

Aspen may not be the next Portland but there is an ugly energy building up.  I don't know where the release value is, but I wonder how some of our newest community members will like October-November when they can't find the services they want and it starts to get dark early and cold.  How will locals feel about providing services for second home owners 24/7 365?  I predict ugly stuff on the horizon.

Me---I am venturing out earlier than ever, staying off my road bike to avoid getting run over and going to trails further and further off the beaten path.

The most dangerous ski run in North America?

So I have moved rentals (more on that later), now I am back in Snowmass living in a ski in ski out house.  Guggenhill runs right next to my house ---like the run touches my house.  That is pretty cool and would be even cooler if the lifts are spinning (more on that later). However the stats in the pic don't do justice to my potential first/last run of the day.  Yea its steep.  Yea its ungroomed.  Yea it crosses the road 5 times, 6 driveways and runs next to a major road with snowplows pushing heaps of snow on the 'run'.  

Sometimes the most dangerous skiing isn't a cliff and 25 feet of mandatory air, its putting on the breaks on a steep run to cross a road and not get hit by a car while on rubber strip.  Simillarly I still think the most dangerous mountain I have ever skied is Mt. Chestnut in Illinois.  For sure it's not the steepest (with less vertical drop than Guggenhill).  However, they have a chain link fence at the bottom to keep people from skiing into the Mississippi river and its gets used because most skiers on on Olin Mark IVs and haven't yet figured out how to turn.  Getting run into by a 280lb farmer going 50mph will leave a mark.

Ditto my ski in ski out run---I am a 2 1/2 minute walk to Adams Av which seems a much better way to both start and end the day.

We do have a bunk room and a spare bedroom if skiing is happening and you don't have the Vid.

crazy weird stupid shit and what we can learn from president trump

Some fun info from Aspen

Aspen is at max COVID capacity (ie hotels and rentals are as full as the city allows--in this case all rentals are full and hotels are at 50% max capacity which is as much as the city currently allows).

Restaurants are slammed, city market is usual summertime nightmare, out of towners jam downtown not knowing about two way stop signs and other unique Aspen local things.  Did I mention we opened the farmers market this past weekend.

The White House restaurant has added a 15% pick up fee---so if you want to avoid CVOID and help a restaurant you can order a $22 french dip sandwich (no fries or any thing else besides some prime rib and bread and jus ) and then add the tax and packaging fee and your sandwich costs about $27.  Holy COVID pricing.

Or my Bikram yoga place I believe has raised prices a bit as well.  $25 for a drop in, and you have to register first and classes are limited to 9 people, and check this out---there is a $35 cancellation fee.  How can the cancellation fee be more than the cost of the class?  WTF

Speaking of WTF, Bikram yoga is open but the Pitkin County building is closed due to COVID which means I have to do licensing things online which adds an additional 2.5% to the cost of everything. 

So restaurants and yoga and the gondola are open but government buildings are closed and in a recession the cost of everything is going up and cases of COVID are increasing. 

Yea this is gonna in well.

And as long as I am taking shots at our local government (and these are well deserved shots) it seems its taking weeks to hire tracers and people to encourage mask wearing.  what the fuck what the fuck what the fuck!!!!! When the town was shut down you should have started the hiring and 'training' process for this not waited till mid-June.  This isn't rocket science, and stupidity from Trump on down is both getting Americans killed and hurting the economy.  Did ya know sports have resumed in Europe because they have a good health care network and largely competent government (UK clearly excluded on competent government).

so what can we learn from Trump?  Don't worry about anything.  There is a reason he is the only president not to age 20 years in office and its because he doesn't read briefing books, doesn't care about facts or being wrong, isn't bothered by people dying or much of anything else.  Don't worry, be happy Hakuna matata.

ohhh tempers are short and we haven't even gotten to the hot part of summer

to put it simply humans weren't meant for this.

They weren't meant to have their president lie about everything all the time.

They weren't meant to watch cops lie about abuse.

They weren't meant to watch prosecutors and unions cover up bad behavior.

They weren't meant to deal with sky high unemployment and sky high stock prices.

They weren't meant to deal with massive uncertainty about everything.

They weren't meant to deal with the hypocrisy of being told to do one thing via COVID safety while watching the very same officials encourage non-COVID safe behaviors (yea I am looking at you Bootsey Bellows open while bank lobbies are closed, and  you Aspen Ski Co running the gondola, and two restaurants with employees testing positive that weren't initially told to close by county.) 

I wanna spend some time with that one-----a government loose credibility when they make a law requiring masks be worn in businesses and then let bars open where patrons don't wear masks.  Or let Ski Co run the gondola ----really how long till the gondola is a super spreader event (just imagine the employee whose job it is to disinfect buckets getting COVID and exposing it to everyone who rides the gondola).  And let's put some names on this----City Market in el Jabel has at least 4 employees who tested positive and there are another 50 who are 'supposed' to be on 14 day quarantine.  Similar percent of population in NYC would be about 4k employees and 50,000 on quarantine.  Meat and Cheese had an employee test positive and initially the authorities said they could stay open----ditto Heather's Pie shop).

But heck, I should relax because the county policy is if hospital beds become 90% full they will shift back to shelter in place------um do these leaders of ours remember the 14 day or so lag between exposure and maybe needing a hospital. 

Humans don't like this.  And then they get short tempered.  And then the ringing in our ears drowns out our better angles.  How long till a BLM protesters and counter protesters come to blows and then our president might find his excuse to play tin pot dictator with even more troops in more cities.


I am going to walk my dogs---this is all too depressingly likely.

covid Pschy

I want to wish all the moms a happy mother's day.  Go moms.  We are going to .........wait for it.........hang around the house.  Wife is also trying to lose the COVID-19 (weight) so no cooking either.  Should be an excellent mom's day.

Let's get our Plato Epistemology studies on and talk about knowledge and chance and the human brain in the time of COVID-19.  Who knows about the illusion of knowledge, or remembers

C(p | {Ch(p)=}^E)=x     i.e. the principal principle

my guess is most of you are scratching your heads and getting ready to stop reading

let me dumb it down

if we flip a coin and I call it right do you think I have coin calling skill?  What if I get it right 10 times in a row?  What about if there are 256 people in a room what are the odds of someone in the room calling the coin toss right 10 times in a row? 

Wait stop doing math and remember the important thing--assuming a fair coin and fair toss no one has coin flip calling skill----but we humans don't want to believe that.  We want to believe that we can figure things out.  We are conditioned to ascribe skill to what is chance.  Call it the curse of the Protestant work ethic.  We want to believe that hard work and brains and effort are rewarded.  Smart people can figure out how to beat the market (and yes a bit of solid statistical analysis can make you wonder if Warren Buffet is actually a good investor or a lucky one or maybe a bit of both). 

We want to think that if we wash our hands and stay away from groups we won't get COVID.

We also want to think that those people that get COVID must have done something to deserve it.

That will largely be true at the macro level, but isn't true at all at the individual level, and yet we want to judge individuals.

You can have the same argument regarding antibodies and how one's immune system responds to COVID.  We want to believe that if we are healthy and take good care of ourselves and therefore deserve good health we will be ok.  Those people who get sick and maybe die---well they must have engaged in risky behavior, they must have not worked hard enough to get a job that allows them to work from home, they must have smoked or not exercised or something to damage their immune system.........and on and on and on.  Humans hate to think that maybe just maybe chance is going to determine if you live or die. 

To put a fine point on it---right now we have to live with a ton of uncertainty and we don't like that.  We humans also want to ascribe knowledge and meaning to a the pandemic to help us make sense of what is going on and to know what to do.  We don't and the most honest people with the most useful knowledge and suggestions are those who admit the limits of their understanding.

Or as my son's college advisor said regarding the admissions process "its a shit show right now".

More fun as to why Trump is a rational actor regarding some of his seemingly unhinged ideas.  If he guesses wrong (re bleach, or sun or hydroxchloroquine) its just Trump being Trump and will be forgotten but if he gets it right.........OMG the rewards for him guessing right would be a second term and all the rewards that go with that.  So yea he is the guy who walks up to the roulette table and bets on 17----yes the odds are 1:35 but for him he looses little in terms of credibility but if he gets it right the winnings are huge.  A different way to explain it is heads he wins .....tails we lose. 

COVID--looking into the abyss

I hope my dear readers panicked and freaked the fuck out due to my lack of posting because....last night I looked into the abyss and didn't like what I saw

To Wit:

Today's weather is cold and moist, we are under shelter in place rules and ........the power went out.  Yes, at week five of shelter in place home with two teenagers and a wife whose hair is starting to do weird things locked at home without the internet.....things could get real ugly real fast.

Other disconcerting moments include:

1.  It seems the world ---or at least the roaring fork valley is out of paper towels.....for the past week I have looked high and low, in Aspen, Basalt and Glenwood Springs----at Clarks, City Market, Whole Paycheck, Walmart and Target and there are no paper towels.  Tomorrow is my daughter's birthday and her favorite food is bacon cooked beyond reason in a microwave on paper towels.  Another COVID disappointment.

2.  Speaking of my daughter she is becoming increasingly difficult (fast twitch teenage hormonal girl locked in house with family---no surprise she is losing her mind and sharing that pain with all of us).  My wife tried to console her by saying that she is beautiful and to enjoy it while it lasts.  Daughter responded with 'mom how old where you when your looks started going downhill'.  At that point I took my dogs for a long long walk (and you wonder why I haven't been posting to this blog)?

3.   In the vein of oversharing and too much quality family time---over dinner my kids shared their bucket list of recreational drugs they would like to try.  Is it good that we are having open lines of communication?  Or scary how much interest they have in exploring the full range of hallucinogenics and uppers?

4.  and finally how about this audition for most craven performance by a doctor (who I guess is trying to save our lives but ought to be trying to save us from our president)


Brix selling her soul for a new scarf and a chance to hang with Trump

trump showing off his scientific knowledge

Do you laugh or cry?  For sure if that doesn't make you think we are near the end of days I don't know what will.  I would guess Trump is one of the 4 riders of the apocalypse but he would fall off his horse, blame Jim Acosta and return to his bed to watch TV and eat McDonalds.  How that man garners at least 40% of the vote of Americans this fall is mind-blowing.

And let me grab my stethoscope channel my inner Trump and say with complete confidence (and I am confident because I know a number of MIT grads) that if you ingest Caesium-137 it is completely effective at destroying the DNA strand of COVID-19.  There is even a beautiful gold standard double blind study that has been running for decades proving this---if you look at Chernobyl (ground zero where there is the most Caesium-137, there is zero COVID-19 there.  It just destroys those little DNA strands so fast, like zap and they are destroyed.  And even better we have Caesium-137 in many of our hospitals---we use it already for radiation therapy---lets give people a gram or two to swallow and zap your lungs are clear of COVID-19.  Perfect.  And afterwards please brush your teeth with Alex Jones (InfoWars) silver toothpaste for good measure.  If you have trouble getting some Caesium its your governors fault and you should blame Governor Cuomo because he is the leader of the bad governor pose. 

Did ya miss my posts?

COVID --unintended consequences

Hair is going Bobby Brady style.  Huge unruly mess.  Anyone checked on flowbee stock?

fun with flowbee

But I am starting to let my kink show---I am kinda enjoying the mask thing on everyone---very exciting.

Also if anyone is looking for a job Aspen Junior hockey is looking for a new head of hockey.  Come on Keith Tkachuk ya know ya want to live in Aspen.

COVID in pictures

Those would be from last weeks dump.

Today I am going to jump on the bike and ride to Ashcroft.

With luck I will get a picture of my daughter.....no she refused to be published in blog but she is back to cooking and playing with a hockey puck (I got a pick of her trying to do both at the same time but will not publish)

my son on the other hand has not left his bed.  His sheets actually have faded where his ass rests.  Lazy bum.  The wife suggested we send him and his sister out for a run--I think my wife might want to eliminate one of them.

Son multitasking while doing online school (communicating both with parent and teacher at the same time).