COVID and uncertainty and unknowns

First and most importantly---I assume my daughter is sleeping---I guess she could be dead but I am going to assume sleeping.

Which is a very unsettling unknown.

My wife's keen replacement surgery is still on for a week from today---the are working under the guidelines that even if my daughter has COVID (and quite frankly who the heck knows) it will be 14 days from when she got sick to when my wife goes under the knife so as long as the wife feels ok, then she doesn't have it because it would have presented in my wife. 

which brings us to my wheelhouse---there is much I am not good at but analyzing risks and questioning unquestioned assumptions in models is as natural for me as breathing is for most.

Vis a vie Steadman Clinic and my wife's knee replacement:

1. they are assuming a 2-14 day incubation period
2. they are assuming that even with a 14 day incubation period my wife would have caught in on day 1
3. they are assuming my wife isn't asymptomatic 
4. they are assuming if my wife has systemptons they present as more than allergies
5. they are assuming no one else at Steadman has COVID (are they being tested? no)

That is a lot of assumptions and as we know many of those assumptions are increasingly looking suspect (for example a lot of people are asymptomatic or have very minor symptoms).

It is impossible to find any kind of normalcy in your life when you can't plan.  How do you not worry any time you sneeze or feel out of breath?  Is it old age going up stairs at 8k feet or should you start praying that some doctor-ethicist decides you are worthy of the last ventilator in the state?  

Will you have enough money to pay the bills?  Will you have a job when the world returns to 'normal'?  When will the world return to normal?  Will normal last when it returns?  Will my daughter go to summer school?  Will my son sail?  Will school resume?  When?  For how long?  Will we become immune to COVID once we catch it?  How long will immunity last?  Will I get to see my parents again?  When?  

If you don't have a bunch of questions that unsettle you there is something wrong with you.  If you are scared, worried, stressed, freaked out etc then you are healthy.  You should be, because being locked up in your house with no idea when you can go to White House for an overpriced but delicious french dip or go to work or see a doctor for that weird lump is impossible for the human brain to digest without some major mental indigestion.

Please know that everything you are feeling is normal, and it will pass, but only GOD knows when.

If you have extra time on your hands I've been enjoying some excellent old rock vids

Check out the hair on the guitarist on this one (who says white boys can't have a 'fro)

white boy fro (rock candy)

And the best AV for a Nirvana show ever

who says rockers can't rock the v-neck

laugh or cry COVID makes you wonder why

maybe the best worst COVID quote goes to..........Wilbur Ross

towards the end of January Wilbur Ross said 'I think it will help to accelerate the return of jobs to North America'.  yep that is the US Commerce Secretary saying out loud how many in the GOP see the world--a zero sum game and if China is losing the US must be winning. 

If this is winning can we please stop.

Larry Kudlow ( Trump top Econ advisor) said on Feb 25 that "the Trump administration has kept the US pretty close to airtight".  Which I guess you could tell because the S&P 500 was pretty close to it's all time highs and the market must know everything (how many times does the efficient market hypothesis have to be proven really fucking wrong).

VP Mike Pence (in charge of Covid-19 response March 12 " I don't actually know how many tests have been done" referring to the botched roll out of millions and millions of beautiful tests that everyone can have

Which brings us to our fearless leader:

Jan 22 ' we have it totally under control it's just one person coming in from China' (whooops)

Feb 26 'We're going to be pretty soon at only 5 people and we could be at just one or two over the next short period of time' (which I guess if you don't test anyone is possible)

Feb 27 'It's going to disappear.  One day it's like a miracle it will disappear'  (other miracles include Trump testing negative)

March 7 'No I am not concerned at all no I am not, we have done a great job'  he did a great job with Trump University and casinos in AC)

March 7  'anyone that needs a test can get a test and the test are all perfect like the letter was perfect the transcription was perfect (well I will say this for COVID, it moved everyone but Trump off the impeachment story)

March 7 also at the CDC  'people are surprised that I understand it.  Everyone one of these doctors say 'how do you know so much about this' Maybe I have a natural ability.  Maybe I should've done that instead of running for the president'.  (Dear God yes can we get a do-over where Trump is a lacky at the CDC PLEASE).

March 16  So it could be right in that period of time where it, I say wash--it washes through"  (an example of his mad CDC skills )

And on and on it goes. 

On a lighter note before school shut the choir teacher asked my boy if he could play the instrumental part of bohemian rhapsody for the choir for a competition. 

Check this out (people got too much time on their hands)

COVID Rhapsody

COVID daughter update

no puke for 48 hours--yea---and no poop for 6 days ---humm probably the result of puke+ zofran but I took her for a walk to hopefully get things moving.  She seems pretty good but the 16 hours of sleeping gives me a little bit of concern.

I watched Top Gun with the boy--I think he watched it about 5 years ago but now that he is a pilot and spent two years sailing out of Annapolis and couch surfing with Navy guys I wind up hearing lots of informed criticism (like there is no way flying through the jet wash would put you in a flat spin, when you lose one engine just put the nose down and accelerate etc).  My God know it all children are...... fun?  Well at least he was talking to me which is also both a blessing and a curse. 

Two local liquor companies (Marble and Woody Creek) have converted their plants to make sanitizer which is pretty awesome.  Also I understand North Sails is making masks, I am betting my son only uses North Sails from now on, although he does love Zim.

Rumor has it that things shouldn't get really bad in CO for another week or two, so its not yet time to go to the party I mentioned a couple of posts ago, even if it feels all clear right now.

A morbid public service announcement, we are updating our will.  Last done about 10 years ago and obviously some things have changed.  For those of you out there with spare time on your hands and kids, it might be worth looking at who you got as guardians and trustees and make sure you still want them and their contact info is still accurate.

Lastly my wife's knee replacement surgery is still on, scheduled for a week from Monday.  That just seems wrong on so many levels.

No one voted off island yet which might be because my daughter has been asleep for the past 6 days and my son has been playing his acoustic guitar exclusively.  If he goes electric and she stops sleeping for 18 hours things might get spicy in a hurry.

Be safe and try to laugh.

COVIDlisish

I've got a local doc friend who keeps telling me not to worry about my daughter and the Covid ain't so bad.

So I tried to tempt him to come have a meal at our house:

First I offered up Chicken Tikki Corona




While tempted he took a pass

Then I tried  doner corona kabab

Which almost got him through the front door but he still didn't feel quite that lucky, so I tried 

corona cherry pie 

clearly today's post has a heavy visual component to it

this picture is called corona optimism (we brought the lawn furniture up yesterday--note storm coming down the pass).  I doubt my daughter will be eating corona pie under the umbrella anytime soon.

Speaking of optimism, my daughter didn't puke last night!!!!!!!! Yea!  We got food into her and it stayed in her.  It's only 2 pm as I write this so I guess it's not surprising that we haven't seen her yet (her earliest wake up during COVID fun has been 4 pm).  I will admit I did go into her room to check and make sure she was breathing.  She is.  I also laid my hand on her head, and she doesn't have a fever and her breathing is normal.  So all that is good, but holy smokes it is a little worrying to even wonder if you kid is alive.  (back of brain is saying......." I mean she has got to be ok?  If she was really having trouble breathing she would wake up and let us know."  Right?  Right?  Right!)  Shut up back of brain she is fine--the local docs all say she is fine although they won't eat any of our corona foods.

Also as a positive I can smell the pie, kabab and curry so I guess I don't got it cause well, at least some people lose their sense of smell when they get the COVID.  I learned that on tictoc so it must be true.

Lastly, I admit I have a couple of smart geeky friends.  One of the geekiest is a Stanford, MIT physics prof who loves to talk about quantum wavelets with compressed sensing.  Well kind of, but you should be impressed.  He is smarter than 99.9999% of the word.  

We were chatting yesterday and he mentioned that it was one thing to study exponential numbers, and play with them on a whiteboard, it's a whole different matter to actually live through it.

Please put your math caps on boys and girls---if one person has COVID in the US and every two days the number of infections doubles how many days does it take to infect the entire United States?

A.  1 week

B.  1 month

C   3 months

D.  6 months

E.  Never 

F.  Who cares I am healthy and have a fast internet connection

Answer is C --well actually a bit less than 3 months but you get the point.

Next up----if we have 200k ventilators in the US (we don't have that many FYI) and only 5% of the population symptomatic at any one time and only 2% of the population that is symptomatic needs a ventilator do we have enough venalitors?

Answer---NO.  we would need 300k sitting around unused to meet that need.

Scared.  Don't be---this vid is a really lovely example of everyone listening to their better angels.

COVID-19 shelter in place is here

First and most important, my daughter continues her epic sleep patterns, she wakes around 5 pm eats, pukes, eats some more and holds that down, complains of chest cracking, sore throat and then wants to watch dance moms with someone in her bed.  Moving into day 4 of this.  Covid or something else-you make the call cause no one else will (no testing till she is much sicker) but if you think everyone in the house hasn't been exposed to whatever got her and she is sharing I've got a bridge to sell you.  (and more scary I am getting into Dance Moms--infection, maybe).

Aspen food and wine has been canceled (mid june).

Aspen Ideas fest has been canceled (end of June-start of July).

If you think the economy in Aspen ain't taking it on the chin I've got another bridge to sell ya.

But not to worry my daughter's spring soccer season has not yet been canceled, because---well I would guess the economics of kids sports are encouraging some stupidity.  The summer olympics have been canceled  but not to worry because CO T-birds spring hockey has just pushed back their start date to May 1----oh thank God my kid won't miss 'spring' hockey.  Bet the T-Birds don't want to send refund checks nor does Aspen United Soccer.  I sense a future blog post in the making.

CO has issued a shelter in place order.  Read the order here

stay at home rules

And yet the spec house construction site next to me is going full tilt.  I spoke to the foreman who admitted that he feels like what he is doing is wrong, but heck it's not his call right? (PS rumor has it new construction to stop on Tuesday).

If you don't bother to read all the rules just know that firearms sales are considered essential (love the second amendment) , but it seems only medical MJ is cleared for sale.  Maybe liquor (essential) makes a comeback.

And for those of you worried that Trump isn't winning enough, looks like he is planning on taking on God on Easter Sunday, and Trump is betting on Trump.  Enjoy the link.

Trump vs God

lost in COVID

I've lost count--something like day 13, which is kinda interesting because I believe it's been about two weeks since my daughter was around anyone besides family and she might have COVID.  How the fuck did that happen?

As I write this she is still asleep (3:15 PM).  Yesterday she slept till 5 pm and the day before 6 pm.  She has puked twice and says it feels a little like her chest is cracking when she breathes.

No fever, no cough, no travel to Iran or Italy or God forbid NYC.  I guess it could be a GI thing but her doc thinks maybe COVID.  Of course there is no way to know because she isn't sick enough to be tested.

On the Aspen testing front, it seems about 45 tests have been run in total for Pitkin County, 15 positive, 15 negative and 15 waiting on results.  I read in the paper it took one guy 11 days to get his results (the state of CO at the time could only analyze 160 tests a day) and it finally came back negative at which point his doc agreed to see him and discovered........ a sinus infection. 

Seems one of the reasons for the very limited testing in remote places is a fear of running out of protective equipment.  With the swab up into your sinuses every testee will aerosol whatever they have up there (COVID from the positive folks and just some snot for the rest) but to not infect the next person the tester should swap out protective gear after each patient.  That would drain a small hospital's protective gear in a hurry, so very limited testing.

On the super duper positive front, with luck a commercial lab has developed a blood test with a fast (maybe 1 hour) turn around and no need to go full hazmant with each new test case.  We can't get that fast enough because, well should my whole family be quarantined because of my daughter who might have COVID or might have a GI bug.  I don't know.  Knowing would help. 

She needs to have her spine brace adjusted and the lovely folks at Hanger Clinic are happy to see her until I mentioned COVID and they asked does she have a fever? (no), does she have a dry cough (no), trouble breathing (no) out of country (no) positive test (no) at which point they said well our guidelines and the CDC guidelines say we could see her (however her actual doc is worried about COVID).  To be seen or not to be seen, that is the COVID question.

The whole thing is a case study of not having a clue and trying to make informed decisions with no information (or as they used to say in stats class garbage in garbage out).

A quick update on social distancing and exercise-- the hot springs are closed because people were too close, there are new signs at trails reminding people to keep distance, and they are threatening to close all access to ski mountains if people can't keep their distance.

yo peeps ---stay back 6 feet.  Please. 

COVID-19 day.....im running out of fingers

My son is hiking with female friend (is he maintaining social distancing)?

The wife is supposed to get a knee replaced April 6, is it gonna happen?

NYC schools are going to have everyone on zoom classroom or the like--will it break the internet?

Will President Trump learn the name of the Admiral who is the surgeon general (answer no and Adams--tuff name to remember).

Will I gain more than 20 lbs during this period of shelter in place (daughter is making deserts daily and my exercise has been crimped)?

Will the bunny get more depressed now that it has lots of people around?

Will we be able to vote in the general election by mail?

Will my wife learn to master online meetings, teching, instruction etc for work?

Will volunteers continue to show up to middle school for food pantry (the numbers are slimming down as the novelty wears off so please consider signing up)?

Will Aspen United ever cancel spring soccer?

Will my son ever be able to take the driver's test?

Will my daughter ever get her next sets of invisalign trays for her teeth?

Will I run out of stuff to Blog about?

COVID-19 day 9

Yea I missed a day

My worries that when every kid tried to live stream school would break the internet proved unfounded.  The school is going to post homework in google classroom and have google hangout available but not stream to every kids computer.  Thank God.  If the internet breaks we will go full lord of the flies, Mad Max crazy.

Other fun facts.  Thank goodness that the government is basically going to bail out pretty much every business because ---well any well managed business can't avoid bankruptcy if they have no revenue for 1-3 months.  A friend of mine who runs a most excellent business, and runs it about as well as any business could be run will need to either raise cash (hard) or need his banks to waive payment on his loans because there is no way he has cash on hand for 3 months of debt payments and no revenue.

He also was a little slow in buying thermometers to take employee's temps.  He has businesses in 5 states and each state is doing things a little differently, but he pretty much has to take each employee's temp every day.  Two weeks ago he could have bought a bunch of thermometers that scan your forehead and give you a temp.  Today the only thing left available was up the butt thermometers.  Yup, his company would need to take over 1k temps anally every day.  Everything is fluid but I am pretty sure his HR department would shit a brick if managers were........I can't even go there.  You get the idea I am sure.

On the positive side Aspen is a lovely place to walk dogs and hike and x-country ski during lock down.  Also my kids have decided to try to sleep through quarantine which they are doing a pretty good job of, waking before noon is a rarity.

The big question coming up is to pay the rent or not?  Hummmmmmm.

COVID-19 day 7

hearing of first bankruptcy---a restaurant in Glenwood springs

trying to get a great deal on a car and was told that they wouldn't come down much in price---I suggested they keep my number and call when they need cash more than inventory

Trump gives himself a grade of 10:10 on response to COVID---what would a 7:10 look like---dead bodies in the street and armed mobs looking for Toliet paper?

My kids must be worried about running out of calories cause right now they are making more sugary stuff than my pants can handel (creme brulee, homemade coffee ice cream, carrot cake )---oh I need the gym

my son complained about being bored.  I asked if he read the stats book I gave hime.  No.  played his guitar (s).  No.  read all quiet on the western front for history.  No. 

By bored I think he meant to say horny. 

Meanwhile my daughter slept till 1 pm.  Is that good or bad?

and my wife is crabby and there is no place to hide----I am off to walk the dogs where there is no cell phone coverage.

COVID-19 Day 6

on the lighter side

COVID-19 Aspen style has resulted in a run on AT (uphilling) equipment.    Yup that stuff flew off the shelves as fast as you could say corona.  Can't get rid of downhill skis but anything that allows you to get out and about right now (sleds, cross country ski set up, fat tire bikes) are all the rage. 

Important to know liquor stores are well stocked, however the TP situation is worrying but not dire yet. 

If things do get bad find 'John'.  He was last seen in Basalt.

another fab use of time for those of you in big city quarantine

sock puppet eating cars

now for a public service announcement I will answer a few questions:

Green Acres, I have a penthouse in NYC, a house in Greenwich and a house in Aspen, I am thinking of taking the G-5 to Aspen to ride out the storm.

Dear Rider on the Storm, 

Please consider that Aspen is at 8k feet and we are talking about a virus that attacks the respiratory system.  Maybe choosing to be at 8k feet is not so wise.  Also our hospital has about 20 beds, no docs who specialize in much of anything besides ortho, and we have community spread in Aspen.  Greenwich sounds lovely this time of year and if you have a carriage house you want to loan to me lmk and i'll pack up the car.

Dear Green Acres,   I just went for a run up Smuggler and now I am short of breath, coughing and have a running nose.  Should I get tested for COVID-19.

Dear Psychosomatic,

As long as you made it up in under 10 minutes you are fine.  Slightly more seriously, (but not very) did you make it in less than 40 minutes, do you have a fever, more than usual muscle fatigue or aches and pains?  No fever, usual muscle fatigue because you are very active and you get a cough when exercising in the cold during snowmelt releasing snow mold, I would say you are fine.  If in doubt take a nap, and take extra good care of yourself.  Most people's' immune system does a lovely job of fighting COVID-19, give yours the best chance to win that battle without medical intervention.

Dear Green Acres, will there be an orgy when this is over?

Dear Horny Teen,

Yes.

Dear Green Acres, will I be invited?

Dear annoy horny teen,

If you have to ask, No.

Covid-19 day 5

so far no one has been voted off the island (for those of you old enough to remember Survivor) however I have asked my neighbors to ignore any shotgun blasts in case someone is voted off my families island.

What the heck is the right tone to take--looking at news stories the top headline is: "are we going to run out of food" and the next headline is "where is tom brady going to play."  That pretty much sums up the source of much cognitive dissonance.

To be honest my family is doing great (so far).........  My wife, son and I worked setting up a food pantry for families that rely on school for food.  This will be an ongoing need and if you want to sign up follow this link.

food pantry sign up

Yesterday we often had too many people (ergo the sign-up we need to maintain social distance while doing the work).  Also no one under 8th grade please its super important to maintain a clean-sterile environment when working with food that is going to go to hundreds of people.

One of the neat things in times of crisis is watching a community work together.  Right now people are looking for things to do to help---if we could make ventilators or gowns and masks in our home I bet we could supply the world with all that was needed in a month.  I hope our President and other leaders figure out what to do with the great community spirit that is out there.  For example, maybe we could put people to work delivering food to those that are in isolation.  There must be tons of things people can do, we should have bright minds figuring that out and telling America---learning a new language is nice but mostly selfish, right now people are listening to their better angels, they just need to be told what to do.  (as an aside I kinda wish that cleaning up dog poop stopped Covid-19, if so Smuggler and all other trails would be clean tomorrow).

Also on better angles (and this is a tuff one because it crosses the line to taking care of family first)  there is a food drive at AMS tomorrow.  See Below

Dear Pitkin County Community,

Aspen Family Connections is organizing a community food drive on Wednesday March 18th from 9:00 AM to 1:00 PM.

Non-perishable food items ONLY will be accepted from the public at the Aspen Middle School on Wednesday 3/18/20 from 9:00 AM to 1:00 PM.

Aspen Family Connections and our partners will ensure that food donated to us will be distributed to those families most in need in our community.

Instructions for drop off: 

• Follow the outer ring at the middle school parking lot - food will be collected under the overhang entrance
• Please spend as little time as possible out of your car and maintain 6 ft social distance from anyone you see.
• Please bring your food to the the tables, and set your donation on the tables provided; 
• Perishable, prepared, hot, or opened food will not be accepted
• If you think you or members of your household have any type of symptoms related to the COVID-19 illness or any concern about contact, do not drop food off at the middle school. 
• All donated food will be handled with gloves and will be sanitized prior to distribution.
• For larger donations or questions call Katherine Sand at 970-205-7025
• We welcome donations of small denominations ($20-50 City Market and Visa gift cards) to support families with specific needs (diapers, formula).  Please place them in the provided receptacle.

Stay tuned for opportunities to donate food. We appreciate your support in this effort.

Sincerely,

The Aspen Family Connections Team 

If you are still reading my daughter has started cooking like a contestant on Iron Chef (banana bread last night, carrot cake tonight) my son went sledding (6 feet separation of course) and my wife was back at school trying to coordinate volunteers (while helping companies figure out how to message in this time of COVID-19).  

Other interesting tidbits from the COVID-19 zone--my son got a very interesting offer to help a couple female friends of his break quarantine around midnight. He considered it but took a pass, so far.  Or as he said you would have heard the garage door go up and then all hell would have broken loose.  I do suspect when this all ends the young adults (??) might go a little nuts.  Maybe I should be buying stock in Trojan, although at the moment I am buying MJ (marijuana stock ETF).

Please keep listening to your better angels and any good ideas about good deeds to be done please let me know. 

Day 4 COVID 19

Don't Pet my DOG!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Life Aspen style with mountain closed and social distancing in full effect (ish).  Turns out people live in Aspen who want to recreate (duh)--with the mountain shut and a lot of trails covered in snow and slush there are limited number of places to safely recreate and social distance.

Yesterday, I was walking the dogs up independence pass and it was crowded.  Half of the people knew not to pet my dogs, 80% of the others started to pet my dogs but responded to my entreaties not to.  And then the other 4 people just petted the heck out of em.  One guy even challenged me as to why not--I said COVID and he looked at me like 'What'?  I said coronavirus on your hands then on my dog and then on my hands.  He gave my dog a good rub and kept walking.  I took my dogs home and gave them a bath, wiped the car down, then bathed in bleach.  Never had I wished I owned pit bulls instead of Golden Retrievers.

Things to add to the list:

1.  don't go grocery shopping for one or two items.  If you are making a spicy Mexican dish and it calls for jalapenos and you don't have any don't go to the store for them.  Use cayenne or tabasco or anything else.  Make a different dish, but try to limit trips to the grocery store to once or twice a week.  Ditto the pharmacy if necessary.  When China locked down Wuhan they allowed one person per family out of the house every 4 days to shop for necessities.  You don't need to shop for a months worth of food at a time (that creates runs on supplies) but you also should limited the amount of times you head to the store.  To be honest, the grocery store is probably the most dangerous COVID-19 place in the world right now.  Fewer trips with excellent hygining before and after is best.  Best time to go tends to be early as well because traditionally they stock first thing in the AM.  So far no signs of shortages so don't go creating any--buy what you need for a week and come back in 6 days.

AND THEY WILL NOT CLOSE THE GROCERY STORES.  IF IT COMES DOWN TO HAVING THE COUNTRY STARVE OR EVERYONE GETTING COVID-19 THE FEDS WILL CHOSE COVID---1% mortality vs martial law, dystopian hunger games type world the government will go with the flu.  Absolutely.  No doubt.  So don't worry about food supplies.  China made it through, we can and will too.

on that front my daughter made fettuccine alfredo last night with homemade pasta.  Excellent and time consuming.  She also asked if we thought her kids would ask her someday about what the COVID-19 pandemic was like and we said yes.  She nodded her head and absorbed the fact that she was living through serious history.

2.  Another nexis of COVID-19 is housekeepers.  If you are lucky enough to have one live in your house full time have em clean away.  If they clean 5-10 different homes and they have their own home you might want to think really hard about letting them into your home.  If you decide to keep them away, you might want to consider paying them something because it's doubtful they have lots of savings to cover pandemic work stoppage.

3.  lastly if your kids are to be trusted it might be possible to have them x-country ski or bike near friends.  Yes you have to make sure they only get together via their own transportation and that the will stay 6 feet apart, but it might be doable for certain kids with certain friends.

AND TO YOU STUPID PEOPLE OUT THERE WHO THINK THIS IS NO BIG DEAL, BY VIOLATING THE SOCIAL DISTANCING POLICIES YOU KINDA WRECK IT FOR EVERYONE ELSE.  Also as I said before listen to actions not words WHEN THE ENTIRE COUNTY CANCLES SCHOOLS, SPORTS, TELLS YOU TO WORK FROM HOME AND THE STOCK MARKET IS DOWN 30% ITS NOT A JOKE, HOAX ETC--TAKE IT SERIOUSLY.  If 30% of the town is all over each other at the White House and Mi Chola and then you go to City Market to buy something I am not just touching you with one degree of separation I am touching everyone you where close to with two degrees of separation which ain't enough separation.  That will help to keep transmission flowing which risks both overwhelming our medical resources, prolonging the length of social distancing and increasingly the likelihood of the government enforcing a more aggressive ban.

Think of it like this---if 50% of the town looks like its still going to travel for spring break (and yea the FEDs know who you are) then it increases the likelihood of them locking down the town.  If they lock us down and your friend's kid who is in boarding school in UT shuts maybe the sheriff's deputy on 82 or I70 lets your friend pass to get their kid.  But maybe not.  Do the right thing so the government doesn't have to force the right thing on us.

We are all in this together.  Listen to your better angels and think of the stories you can tell your kids.

day 3 COVID-19

no I don't have it as far as I know (as mentioned before we have stopped testing in Pitkin County because...........well good question and the bad answer is because its not therapeutic.  Of course, it would give an idea if you should self isolate for 14 days but I feel fine........well as fine as  you can feel when you are stuck at home with two teenage kids, a wife and an assortment of animals.

I feel a little like I should be filming Blair Witch style but I am not that tech savvy

Blair witch trailer

Right now I am trying to manage the disappointment of not going to Hawaii (family has decided it's mostly all my fault).  We are not letting the kids interact with friends but we are asking them to do chores, exercise and do homework (designed by parents).  My house is not a happy place. 

Things for kids to do---online standardized test prep, read a book and write a book report, watch a historical movie and discuss, play social media games with friends (forte nite might make a huge comeback) watch a movie with a friend on facetime (Blair Witch any of you kiddies?).  Cook.  play an instrument.  walk dogs, ride bike (alone) shoot pucks, kick soccer ball and do burpees till you puke.  Clean closet.  Clean under bed. 

Yea, if I am murdered during the night the kids have good motive.

Things for them not to do.....hang out with friends anywhere but especially in town.  It's like having unsafe sex where you are not just with your partner but all your partner's partners' and their partners' partners.  Pretty quickly you might as well be licking the screen at the self checkout at City Market.

And to you stupid ass highschool boys I saw in Clark's market parking lot sharing a Jewel and buying snacks OMG your stupidity is shared with all of us every time you go into the grocery store which given the high likelihood of you having munchies is very HI.  Your parents need to man up and stop your stupid ass behavior cause the longer Aspen is a hotspot the more its gonna hurt all of us economically.

Why day 3 you might ask---I am counting day 1 as the day ASD announced that school would be canceled and I starting getting too much quality time with my family.  Since then Aspen Ski Co has said they would keep the mountain open (day 2) been forced to close the mountain by the governor (day 3) and I expect on day 4 we (either Aspen or Pitkin county and maybe Garfield and Eagle county) will be put in quarantine-limited mobility to essential people on essential tasks.  Initially that will be a shit show as everyone tries to sort out what is essential. 

"I mean it's pretty essential that I go shopping at Aviator Nation and then hit Caribou Club officer."

Right!!!! Oy.


Here is what we are doing:

1.  Limit-eliminate social contact
2.  wash hands before leaving house (going to grocery store, pharmacy, going to school to distribute food to 150 families who rely on free school meals to feed their kids---yea 150 families lose weight when school closes in Aspen)
3.  when returning home clean phone with alcohol wipe THEN wash hands
4.  stay active (no sitting in room and watching all of Game of Thrones, Breaking Bad and Narcos Elijah)
5.  Listen to actions not words--err on the side of caution and remember you will have great stories about what you did during the pandemic


Be smart.  Be safe and be a good citizen.

remain calm (and freak the fuck out)

trying to figure the right tone to very is very hard .....maybe impossible

Some info from small town living......

We have basically stopped doing tests so if you think Aspen is 'safe' because you don't see a large jump in positive COVID-19 tests that is a assumption made on faulty information.  You won't see a large jump in test numbers because we are not testing---because according to the Health folks testing is not therapeutic and we don't want to overwhelm the system and we can assume we have community spread in Aspen. 

How much community spread?  We won't know that because we are not testing.  Have a cold and not sure if it's just a cold or COVID-19, I guess assume the worst and stay in your house for 14 days even though you feel fine after 3-5 days.  How many of you are going to follow that guideline? 

I am a bigger fan of seeing what seems to work.  It looks like countries that are testing aggressively are seeing more positive results.  The USA has massively shat the bed in terms of testing, and now we are going to pay for it.  While health care pros are trying to put a positive spin on not testing (ie its not a treatment) knowing for sure that you need to self-isolate for 14 days is more likely to happen with a positive test result. 

Ditto social distancing---do I let my kid hang out with friends?  A friend?  Well if I know that 20% or god forbid 70% of the town has tested positive I am only going out to buy food every 4 days and then I am taking a 30 min shower and bleaching the car.  If the numbers are high, but we don't test to know, then I fear we will kinda practice social distancing but we won't really do social distancing powerfully.

Likewise, the rest of the world might choose to visit Aspen (from as close as Glenwood Spring to the Italian guy at the bar yesterday who had come over from Northern Italy the week before) might give us a wide berth if they know Aspen is a COVID super hot spot.  I fear Aspen might have a lot of COVID and we might spread it all over the world.  Shoot half the locals have spring break plans coming up---do you really want maybe 500 asymptomatic positive people traveling all over the place?  It's easier to convince Aspen to lock down with evidence, and that is number of people tested, and number of positive results from those tests.  Without that, or pulling out the national guard to limit Aspen mobility you got the gamut of locals from the family in a Sprinter van heading to Moab to families in their private jets flying to Tahiti. 

Clearly you can't listen to or believe Trump.  After god knows how many lies and just outright stupidity which also infects those around him, I fear press briefings are only useful to give examples to the kids of SAT words like disingenuous and obfuscation.  (psychosomatic is another useful word to define for the kids).  What you can and should do is forget what is being said by Trump et al and look at the actions.  School closures.  Travel bans.  Canceling everything from Coachella to taping late night talk shows.  Actions speak louder than words, and while numbers can be fudged (WE HAVE MILLIONS OF BEAUTIFUL TEST KITS but we can only run 100 tests a day) the actions tell you what you need to know.  Stay home.  Keep your kids home.  Exercise outside by yourself (not on the ski mountain).  Don't eat out.  Probably don't even order out.  Error on the side of caution because the bottom line is its a freaking pandemic even if the CDC won't call it that.  Act as if, and if in 1 month you feel like you where foolish for overreacting that is soooooooo much better than wishing you hadn't let your daughter have 3 friends sleepover and then flew to Hawaii where you were quarantined because symptoms developed 5 days later (of course after you do a group snorkeling trip and where they had a buffet on the dive boat).

this is a really good source--worth the read


this is not a snow day

Be smart and listen to your better angels.  We are an amazing country, we have a long history of willingness to sacrifice for the greater good.  Let those angels guide you and if I see you while walking the dogs up the pass, I won't pet your dogs----and maybe you shouldn't pet mine.

Covid-19 comes to Aspen

ok this is a unsettling topic but lets discuss

We have 9 cases in Aspen in a town of 7k people--that puts us per capita at a level similar to New Rochelle is under National Guard lockdown.  There is a couple quarantined in the little nell---OMG are they on the hook for their room for the next 14 days---wonder what Congress will say about paying for a suite at the little nell?  And who is going to clean it?  And a recent story I read indicated it might actually be able to transfer via air for 2-3 hours---so yea the HVAC at little nell might be getting the rest of the guests and employee's sick.  Doubtful but possible.

Sadly aspen is a bit like a cruise ship as far as coronavirus goes.  There is a lot of eating at buffet style restaurants (pretty much every mountain restaurant) there is a lot of eating out and many workers interact with tourist all day long as part of their job.  Where we differ is unless they bring in the national guard it's easy to get out of Aspen (for now) and I fear not only will Covid 19 spread all over town, we will also be pretty good at spreading it all around the world. 

Fun examples of the human condition in action (the human condition in this case is the want to feel like we are in control, and also manic (OMG its the end of the world) or way too blase (I washed my hands and I am young what is all the fuss about)

1.  proper protection




or



2.  unwillingness to admit mistakes and learn from them----as of today the US has tested about 11k people for Covid 19, S Korea is testing 10k people a day---US population is about 6x larger than S Korea----and yet we have a Presidential administration who spends most of its time talking about how great President Trump's actions have been.  How do you rate our response 10 weeks after first case S Korea is testing 10k people a day and we have tested 11k people?

Ditto disingenuous use of big numbers namely to impress--Trump et al have been banging on that we should have 4m test kits out by the end of the week.  Initially that sounds impressive but who knows if they will have the regents in each kit or lab so that you can actually get the results.  It's like selling 4 million printers but no ink.  Kinda useless.  On the ground in CO our state can currently only get results for 161 tests per day, and it takes 2-3 days right now to get results.  In Australia turnaround time is ........4 hours once the lab receives the test. 

3.  Trying to project confidence, actually projecting clueless.  Again its kinda like what should you believe someone's words (wash your hands) or their actions (full bio weapons gear).  Listening to Trump downplay the dangers of the virus for weeks has been depressing.  Today he continued to say that it should go away in a couple of months.  Yea well maybe, but maybe not.  Coronavirus is not like the flu, which Trump doesn't seem to get.  It seems possible that getting coronavirus does not confer immunity--if that is the case it seems to this non-infectious disease specialist that a vaccine might be very hard to impossible to create.  No one wants to admit that and honestly I don't think our President could wrap his mind around that.  The most honest person regarding the virus is Angela Merkel who feared that 70% of Germans could get Covid-19.  Scary but if you aren't honest with people there will come a point where no one will believe anything you say and that might be costly.  I fear our president with his incessant lies and unwillingness to admit any mistakes ever (Sharpie gate and Alabama) can't effectively lead our country, and has not only destroyed his credibility but damaged the credibility of all those surrounding him (CDC I am looking at you).

Stay in shape, wash your hands and avoid cruise ships (like Aspen, colleges, boarding schools, etc), not all cruise ships come with Julie McCoy and the lido deck.