a woman's prerogative

is to change their mind--and now she is thinking that yes indeed the weed (patch and ointment) may actually help with pain.  Yea.  Its gotta be better than oxy.  But interestingly it's also more expensive.  This was also true for Jarvis.  Percocet for Jarvis ran $2 a day and doggie dope ran $15.  It's almost the same ratio for oxy (with insurance) vs patches.  Which kinda shows some interesting economics around the weed biz.  The price of wholesale flower (the stuff Bob marley used to roll in those massive cigar sized joints) has gone from $2,000-3,000 a lb a couple of years ago to under $1,000.  While wholesale flower prices are collapsing due to massive supply, money is being made refining the stuff for medical usage and for recreational vaping and  smoking crystal (you need to bust out your crack pipe and butane lighter to smoke crystal for you kief).

The marijuana business is really fascinating.  You could spend a whole semester in business school studying the externalities surrounding this business.  Speaking of a government-business mashup that is failing let's take a quick peak at health care on the western slope of CO.

 For individuals in the western slope region of CO there is only one option.  That is a very expensive HMO.  That is it.  I have spent my entire life avoiding the HMO option and now I am looking at spending about 35k between premiums and deductible before Anthem spends a nickle for my families health expenses.  And check this out---if my family's total income (W2 plus invest gains, plus dividends and other income) is less than $97,200 in 2017 my family can get subsidies of almost $20k per year.  But if we make a cent over 97.2k we lose the 20k subsidy.  And if we make less than $32k they will put us on Medicaid so the Federal government will pick up a chunk of the tab.  Yikes, so my goal has to be to either make more than 125k or $97,199.  And the nearest gyno that takes my plan is 37 miles away.  Sign me up for socialized medicine--anyone who has to deal with an insurance company would probably agree that the for profit insurance really just means screwing the customer.  And out here on the western slope of CO we have no options either in provider or plan so effectively I got the same coverage I would have via socialized medicine (one insurance provider and limited hospital and doctor options) at a much more expensive price.

 

went skiing with the kids

my son noted that it would take a lot to make mt chestnut (Galena IL) look impressive but Aspen-Snowmass managed that today with two bunny hill slopes open.

Looking on the bright side we got to figure out the buses a bit, but I really can't figure out the point of having the mountains open except to say they are open.  And I can't believe the number of locals who put on their skis and boards just to say they skied.  A number of them said they want to ski 100 days this year so I needed to get out.  What?  Why?  I don't understand the desire to quantify everything and then compare (who are we kidding compete).  I am not going to keep track of the number of days I ski, nor the number of vertical feet or speed or anything else.  I just hope we get enough snow that I can find a blue run or two to ski with the kids (or even without).

Now about medical weed---we tried it (patches and ointment) and found no effect.  Jarvis tried capsules and she also didn't seem to find any relief.  I am sure it works for some (placebo maybe) but in my very small sample set it is not a miracle drug.  And watch out if Jeff Sessions becomes the new AG he might just bring the Feds in to prosecute production and consumption "good people don't smoke marijuana".  If I was a producer I would be up at night worrying.  

weed soon I promise but first hills--its just a matter of perspective

I just got back from St. Louis where i celebrated both thanksgiving and my brothers big fat gay jewish brazilian midwestern thanksgiving weekend wedding.  Thanksgiving in STL always involved various runs to deal with too much home cooking, and from a Chicago runner's perspective St. Louis seemed hilly.   No longer.  The gift of running up Sinclair road is St. Louis now seems flat as a pancake and Chicago is all downhill.

It's also snowing out here (finally).  It should snow off and on for the next 3 days so hopefully more runs will open up.  The kids and I plan on punching our season pas a bit later today on the 2 runs that are open.  The joy of a season pass is you don't feel crazy about either getting in your turns or rushing to the hill.  In the meantime my kids and two dogs are making a mess of the snow in the yard, and I got the hot tub cranked up for latter.

traffic

In an effort to take it down a notch how about a traffic blog.

Folks in Aspen complain about traffic--I was in Chicago 2 weeks ago and it was a lovely reminder of what traffic really looks like.  The wife was having neck surgery and I was at Northwestern hospital a lot.  Each time I left it took me 15-20 minutes to go the first 500 yards.  Yup, you read that right.  I could have crawled drunk along the ground 3x faster than I was driving.  They actually had to have an attendant at the parking garage exit deal with people whose paid parking tickets had timed out while trying to get out of the garage.  Now that is traffic.  And then driving around lincoln park continues to be like playing Frogger on Acid and speed.  Pedestrians, cars, buses, trucks and those dam bicyclists (oh yea and skateboards, hoverboards and boost it boards) all trying to get ahead.  Scary crazy shit.

However, it's light out, the distances you are trying to cover are not that far and in general no one is going that fast.

In Aspen it's dark, and people go fast to cover the distances they tend to be driving (long) and often are drunk (or at least legally over the limit).  Humm that does make things a bit more interesting.  And this past weekend I was staying in Avon for a hockey tournament that had me driving to Vail and Eagle.  Between Avon, Vail and Eagle I must have driven through 9 traffic circles on each route for a grand total of 35-40 circles.  I am not sure what these planners were thinking of, but for people new to the area (like just about everyone there on vacation which is just about everyone) traffic circles are challenging to say the least and not just for the driver.  I found my google maps app blown away in Avon in a couple of the circles.  Good fun.

And then there was some local road rage.  I was stuck directly behind a guy driving down owl creek road at 25 MPH (5-15 miles an hour under the speed limit).  For you Chicago based readers that is kinda like driving on Lake Shore Drive at 35 miles an hour.  At 9 AM.  There were bikes going downhill faster than us.  At the merge with 82 I passed him (bad me for passing during a turn but seriously I was going to miss yoga, and I can't have that).  At this point he sped way up, got right on my ass, pulled out his cell phone and took a video of my car while flipping me off (basically no hands on the steering wheel).  He then got into the breakdown lane as we approached the traffic circle, swerved towards my car and then passed a bunch of cars illegally.  Hum his Aspen high seemes to have worn off.

Next up weed---wife is gonna try some medical for pain management.  And Jarvis was consuming some as well the day before the end.  

Jarvis R.I.P.

No words I can write can do her justice.  I know it's not PC to say, but of all our goldens she was the best.  She gave love in boundless amounts only requiring your presence and the occasional bit of food left on the counter or dropped on the floor.  She would take me for walks when I wanted to yell at my wife or kids, introduced me to other people whose lives I shared for 14 years at OZ park.  She showed me that you can eat a whole Duraflame log, or a package of raw lamb (bones included), and not even get sick  However, put her in a car and she would puke all over the place.  She showed me that some days a 5 mile run, and a 20 min swim in lake michigan wasn't enough and that she really needed some time to play with other dogs in the park.   Also border collies weren't the only dogs who could rock the agility course.  She showed the policemen that having dogs off lead was often useful if they rousted the homeless people in the park.  And she showed me that you can do pranayama breathing all night long if you just work at it.

Best of all she defined man's best friend everyday.  I will miss you and your beautiful constantly shedding fur a ton.

And if you really want to get the tears flowing--my son who has a bit of musical talent was playing music for Jarvis as she passed away--the last song was Just Breath  (Jarvis was a huge fingerpicking fan)

And it's snowing

snow report

nothing to report.  nada zip zero.  too warm to even make snow.

We got 6 inches 6 weeks ago and over 9500 feet there is some dust but there is no snow.

Some pros and cons:

Last sunday night my boiler tried out for a role in a Steven King book (it was a noisy, loud, smoky and smelly death).  We do not have a replacement working yet, so nights in the high 20s have been good for us, but mean no snowmaking.  I'm gonna call this a win for my family.

Wife was told post surgery on C5-7 (for the second time) no skiing this year.  So if there ain't no snow I get less complaining from the Boss because she isn't missing anything.  I would rate this a push.

My daughter is playing a hockey tourney in Vail this weekend and I am dragging my son along kicking and screaming.  Vail is supposed to open this Friday in which case he could ski for a day or two while the daughter is playing puck.  That would be great, but also more expensive cause lift tickets are crazy and parking cost goes up when they open the hill.  I would say overall having Vail open with snow would be a pro, but I fear one run of slush (its supposed to rain Thursday and Friday).

The locals say it's too soon to write off the season, and the hiking and biking has been lovely, but I am ready for some snow.  Well almost ready, getting the snow tires on Thursday.

And look Ma no political comments.

i promised myself I wasn't going to blog re election BUT

i've been getting some comments demanding it so just this one post election snapshot and then I have so much good blogging to do re aspen vs big city but first:

For those of you who don't know my prior job was that of a macro trader and from an investor perspective my view is to sell everything.  I kinda wondered what would end the huge asset inflation we had seen under Obama and I think we have our answer and that is Trump.  While it is truly impossible to know what Trump policies will be, if as seem likely he pursues protectionism, isolationism, tax cuts and infrastructure spending while also bad mounting the Fed, talking down the value of the dollar, higher US rates, inflation, lower stock prices and higher asset volatility seem the likely outcome.  This will take time to play out (so you have some time to start selling) but my advice is sell everything for a 20-30% pullback.

But now to my election commentary.

What America voted for on Tuesday:

1.  In an effort to create more high paying jobs, America voted for protectionism--I hope there are a lot more high paying jobs because the cost of a hammer made in Allentown and not China (or for that matter your next iphone) is going to be 200-400% higher.

2.  In an effort to get DC to work better and more build more comity between the parties, America voted for a guy who spews vitriol and insults.

3.  In a country where the majority of voters prefer the right for women to have an abortion, America voted for a guy who wants to jail women for having an abortion and whose vice president signed a law requiring funeral's for aborted fetuses.

4.  In a country that is increasingly socially liberal America voted to ensure a socially conservative supreme court for the next two decades.

5.  In a country that feels the system isn't fair and rigged against the average guy American voted for a guy who has exploited every loophole possible over his entire life.  A billionaire who pays no tax.

6.  In a world where Americans feel less safe than ever, America voted for isolationism and know nothing foreign policy, and a bromance with Putin.

7.  In a country where Americans feel more threatened by gun violence than ever, American voted for more guns.

8.  In a world where 98% of scientists believe man made climate change is real America voted for a guy who thinks it's a hoax propagated by China.

9.  In a world filled with complicated nuanced challenges that cries out for leadership Americans voted to exit its leadership role and pick a leader who can't manage to stay focused for more than 30 minutes (see debates 1,2 & 3).

10.  68% of Americans believe that Donald Trump does not have the temperament to be president and now he is president elect.

We are through the looking glass Alice and it's a strange strange world we are in.

And lastly I hope my fellow voters don't let the GOP play the victim card again--they own everything from the white house to the supreme court, US house and senate and the majority of governorships and state houses.  The party who hates government now owns it all--so show us how it's done RIGHT.