First things first, I really hope that our attack on Iran leads to a stable, healthy, democratic, region where all people are treated with respect. Of course our partner Israel (maybe even our leader if Rubio is to be believed) in this war does not pursue such an with Palestinians, but that is a story for another time. Also I am old and remember the Arab Spring and our previous attempts at bombing our way to democracy and its failures.
Things to think about:
1. I believe the most likely outcome of our war is a failed state in Iran. Historically which has been more dangerous, a failed state or a state sponsor of terrorism? Answer--a failed state. The 9/11 attacks came out of a failed state and is the only time in the last 75 years there has been a mass causality event on American soil from a foreign actor. Also how much trouble could a failed state located on the strait of Hormuz cause? A lot. Bottom line, a bad acting state is bad, anarchy in a geographic important location with lots of arms and oil and hate towards America might be a heck of a lot worse.
2. Who is winning right now? China. A classic blunder is trying to fight two wars at the same time, and China is watching us burn through munitions to destabilize the Middle East. We are told that we needed to attack Iran because they were weak and we had actionable intelligence that their leadership was gathering. I wonder if China is taking a hard look at Iran and our force readiness and thinking, China is never going to have a better time to take Taiwan. If I was in Taiwanese leadership I would be hiding under ground and have the country at Defcon 2.
3. You know what Trump and the GOP never talk about any more---the US debt. First came Trump's BBB which is projected to add $4 TRILLION to our debt over 10 years ---while cutting Medicaid and crushing rural hospitals resulting in 10-50% increases in the cost of health insurance. Then Trump decided to bomb 7 countries and who knows how many boats in the Caribbean. He also decided to deploy the National Guard in American states and the Capitol in a show of force to intimidate Democrats. All of these things cost money. We will be lucky to see our debt grow by only an additional $4 trillion over the next 10 years. Of course with a President whose businesses have declared bankruptcy 6 times, worrying about how the bills get paid is not on his to do list. For the rest of us who will pay the bills it should be. With America burning through goodwill as fast as we are burning through Patriot missiles, is it possible that the OPEC countries decide to buy fewer US bonds in the future. Hell yea. While I don't foresee all foreign countries deciding to sell all their US government bond holdings is it possible or even likely that they decide to cut way back on future purchases which will correspond with our ever rising borrowing needs. Yes, indeed.
Finally a bit of education for all those arm chair middle east experts in the GOP (I've lost track of the number of GOP members of Congress who don't know this) Ali Khamenei was killed this week. He lead Iran from 1989. Ruhollah Khomeini lead Iran from 1979-1989 and was responsible for the fall of the Shah, the take over of the US embassy and the 1983 bombing in Beirut. Every time I hear a GOP senator telling me that Khamenei has been in charge since 1979 I want to scream that maybe just maybe before risking American lives, the global economy and our military readiness you should read the cliff notes on the Middle East (PS Iran is mostly Shia Persian and the states surrounding them are Arab Sunni and they don't like each other. As a matter of fact they have been at each other's throats off and on for about.....1400 years. So don't be so surprised when Iran decides part of their plan to share the pain includes attacking their Arab neighbors.)
