Why Iran might loose every battle and still win the war

 I am old.  I am old enough to remember the Iranian revolution, and the US embassy being taken over and 55 Americans held for 444 days.  While I know this might sound crazy, the Iranians really put their thumb on the scale of the US elections---had they released the hostages in October or had the mission to use the military to free them work Carter might very well have won reelection and we never would have had a Reagan presidency.  How different would the US have been with no Reagan presidency, who knows but I am sure the answer is VERY.  Instead the mission failed, and the hostages were released the day Reagan was sworn in.  A middle power middle east country swayed the US presidential elections--that is some serious power.

Fast forward to today and our military has crushed the Iranian military and yet Iran might have even more power to influence American than in 1979.  Since the start of the war the price of oil has gone up about 30%.  Predictions of a global recession or even depression are commonplace.  Expectations of future interest rates have gone from cuts to hikes as higher energy prices feeds through into broad inflation expectations.  But here is the difference no one is talking about.  In 1979 US total debt to GDP ratio was 31.6% while today it is 122.6% (i.e. almost 390% higher).  The dog that hasn't barked is America's ability to fund our borrowing--but if that is ever going to be an issue it might be when American pursues a war of choice not necessity while also beating up our allies with tariffs and threats to NATO while China takes a hard look at taking over Taiwan.  If ever there was a time for foreign individuals and governments and asset managers to go on a buyers strike this is it.  And while the DOD (or is it the Department of War) asks for an additional $200 billion to fund the war in Iran the question that no one is asking is who will loan us that money.  And at what price.  

While Iran helped swing the 1980 elections to Reagan in 2026 Iran might create a blue tidal wave.  The big difference is this is of Trump's making while Carter born no responsibility for the Iranian revolution.  Also Trump has taken the world to the brink of WW3.  If you are not worried about China being concerned about American controlling the Strait of Hormuz you should read a bit of history about Japan's motivation in 1940.  See below.

Oil was the primary catalyst for Japan starting World War II in the Pacific. Facing a 90% dependence on foreign oil imports and a total U.S. embargo in 1941, Japan launched a "southern strategy" to seize oil fields in the Dutch East Indies. This move meant seizing territory and attacking the U.S. to ensure, rather than run out of, fuel for their war machine