Friday, November 11, 2016

i promised myself I wasn't going to blog re election BUT

i've been getting some comments demanding it so just this one post election snapshot and then I have so much good blogging to do re aspen vs big city but first:

For those of you who don't know my prior job was that of a macro trader and from an investor perspective my view is to sell everything.  I kinda wondered what would end the huge asset inflation we had seen under Obama and I think we have our answer and that is Trump.  While it is truly impossible to know what Trump policies will be, if as seem likely he pursues protectionism, isolationism, tax cuts and infrastructure spending while also bad mounting the Fed, talking down the value of the dollar, higher US rates, inflation, lower stock prices and higher asset volatility seem the likely outcome.  This will take time to play out (so you have some time to start selling) but my advice is sell everything for a 20-30% pullback.

But now to my election commentary.

What America voted for on Tuesday:

1.  In an effort to create more high paying jobs, America voted for protectionism--I hope there are a lot more high paying jobs because the cost of a hammer made in Allentown and not China (or for that matter your next iphone) is going to be 200-400% higher.

2.  In an effort to get DC to work better and more build more comity between the parties, America voted for a guy who spews vitriol and insults.

3.  In a country where the majority of voters prefer the right for women to have an abortion, America voted for a guy who wants to jail women for having an abortion and whose vice president signed a law requiring funeral's for aborted fetuses.

4.  In a country that is increasingly socially liberal America voted to ensure a socially conservative supreme court for the next two decades.

5.  In a country that feels the system isn't fair and rigged against the average guy American voted for a guy who has exploited every loophole possible over his entire life.  A billionaire who pays no tax.

6.  In a world where Americans feel less safe than ever, America voted for isolationism and know nothing foreign policy, and a bromance with Putin.

7.  In a country where Americans feel more threatened by gun violence than ever, American voted for more guns.

8.  In a world where 98% of scientists believe man made climate change is real America voted for a guy who thinks it's a hoax propagated by China.

9.  In a world filled with complicated nuanced challenges that cries out for leadership Americans voted to exit its leadership role and pick a leader who can't manage to stay focused for more than 30 minutes (see debates 1,2 & 3).

10.  68% of Americans believe that Donald Trump does not have the temperament to be president and now he is president elect.

We are through the looking glass Alice and it's a strange strange world we are in.

And lastly I hope my fellow voters don't let the GOP play the victim card again--they own everything from the white house to the supreme court, US house and senate and the majority of governorships and state houses.  The party who hates government now owns it all--so show us how it's done RIGHT.






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