COVID and uncertainty and unknowns

First and most importantly---I assume my daughter is sleeping---I guess she could be dead but I am going to assume sleeping.

Which is a very unsettling unknown.

My wife's keen replacement surgery is still on for a week from today---the are working under the guidelines that even if my daughter has COVID (and quite frankly who the heck knows) it will be 14 days from when she got sick to when my wife goes under the knife so as long as the wife feels ok, then she doesn't have it because it would have presented in my wife. 

which brings us to my wheelhouse---there is much I am not good at but analyzing risks and questioning unquestioned assumptions in models is as natural for me as breathing is for most.

Vis a vie Steadman Clinic and my wife's knee replacement:

1. they are assuming a 2-14 day incubation period
2. they are assuming that even with a 14 day incubation period my wife would have caught in on day 1
3. they are assuming my wife isn't asymptomatic 
4. they are assuming if my wife has systemptons they present as more than allergies
5. they are assuming no one else at Steadman has COVID (are they being tested? no)

That is a lot of assumptions and as we know many of those assumptions are increasingly looking suspect (for example a lot of people are asymptomatic or have very minor symptoms).

It is impossible to find any kind of normalcy in your life when you can't plan.  How do you not worry any time you sneeze or feel out of breath?  Is it old age going up stairs at 8k feet or should you start praying that some doctor-ethicist decides you are worthy of the last ventilator in the state?  

Will you have enough money to pay the bills?  Will you have a job when the world returns to 'normal'?  When will the world return to normal?  Will normal last when it returns?  Will my daughter go to summer school?  Will my son sail?  Will school resume?  When?  For how long?  Will we become immune to COVID once we catch it?  How long will immunity last?  Will I get to see my parents again?  When?  

If you don't have a bunch of questions that unsettle you there is something wrong with you.  If you are scared, worried, stressed, freaked out etc then you are healthy.  You should be, because being locked up in your house with no idea when you can go to White House for an overpriced but delicious french dip or go to work or see a doctor for that weird lump is impossible for the human brain to digest without some major mental indigestion.

Please know that everything you are feeling is normal, and it will pass, but only GOD knows when.

If you have extra time on your hands I've been enjoying some excellent old rock vids

Check out the hair on the guitarist on this one (who says white boys can't have a 'fro)

white boy fro (rock candy)

And the best AV for a Nirvana show ever

who says rockers can't rock the v-neck